WMUR’s Headline: “NH has seen more than 20,000 new COVID-19 cases in December, DHHS reports.” What does it mean? It means nothing. And while WMUR reports hospitalizations and deaths, they never report any of that in the context for those 20,000 new positive cases. And it matters.
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Here’s their lede.
New Hampshire officials announced more than 800 new COVID-19 cases Monday, meaning that more than 20,000 cases have been identified in December alone.
There have been 20,832 cases in December, which is 49.99% of all cases identified in New Hampshire since early March. The overall number of cases in the state has nearly doubled since the start of December.
Over 800 cases reported Monday sounds like a lot until you read down a bit.
The 861 new cases include 102 for Sunday (Monday’s report date), 472 for Saturday (Sunday’s report date), 205 for Christmas Day (Saturday’s report date) and 82 for last Tuesday (last Wednesday’s report date).
We had 861 cases since last Tuesday? That’s like, a week. So, less than 150 cases per day. If we have 20,000 positive cases in December alone, that’s over 700 per day. Why aren’t they reporting the nearly 80% decline in positive cases over a long Christmas Weekend?
That’s easy, it’s not scary.
Nor is the fact that the numbers are as much a reflection of more or less testing.
In the first week of December, the state reported an average of 1000 new positive cases per day. This accounts for a third of the total that dominates WMUR’s breathless headline, and it means what? There were more tests. And what does that mean? By itself, nothing.
It’s actually good news.
If you look at the COVID19 case summary reports and check reported positive tests against hospitalizations and deaths in NH for these age groups, the numbers for both are in decline. A positive case means less, the more of them we have.
During this epic rise in positive cases (we call December), the survival rate for those who test positive has risen while the risk of hospitalization has declined.
Here’s more good news. The actual risk is even lower than we are reporting. Tens of thousands of GraniteStaters across NH have had this already with no symptoms. Lucky us, though, the crappy PCR test could produce a positive result from those meaningless encounters we had months ago. Low viral load, non-communicable, but they’ll quarantine you anyway.
I’m picturing the future. They test you for contaminant X, tell you you are positive and make you miss work and pay even though you look and feel fine and are no threat to anyone. WMUR News 9 is johnny on the spot to report the huge increase in positive tests. People are afraid. They let the government suppress their rights.
Wait, that’s today!
Speaking of today, here is the updated daily NH COVID19 Threat Index. You can view the State’s 12/28/20 Case Summary here.
As a reminder, those over 70 always need to be careful during any flu season, and COVID19 has not been kind. You need to decide for yourselves with family, and your doctor or care provider, what is best for you, as does anyone with respiratory issues or other high-risk comorbidities.
But you should not have to give up your business, job, liberties, friends, Holidays, or anything else – quarantine or wear a mask (unless you want to do that) if you decide the risk is acceptable.
You should be free to choose based on an honest presentation of the risk and your tolerance for it.
Previous Reports (published date – Case Summary date will be the day before the republished date)
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/15/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/16/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/17/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/18/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/19/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/20/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/21/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/22/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/23/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/24/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/25/2020
- No 12/25/2020 case update.
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/27/2020
- New Hampshire COVID19 Threat Index Update 12/282020