Tim has a great chart about political registration – while it is true that it is not all roses blooming for the Republicans, it looks downright nasty for the Democrats. And using that as the foundation, look at this from (yes, again) The Corner:
Obama Three Points Ahead
Among likely voters, President Obama is at 50 percent and Mitt Romney at 47 percent in a new CNN poll. The partisan breakdown is 37 percent Democrat, 34 percent independent, and 29 percent Republican.
This is a perfect example of front loading Democrat participation using a turnout model that just doesn’t exist in the real world. Really, a model that has only 29% Republican? I realize that there is a lot of discussion going on about what the right mix should be – and I will admit that the independent number looks right. The Democrat has a mix that is 8 points higher than the Republicans? Really?
Add this in from Breitbart (emphasis mine):

