Articles tagged as

Primary

Can Romney Do It?

Romney_lesko_small.jpg

“If you can’t convince them, confuse them.”   -President Harry S. Truman 33rd American President.

 Mitt Romney came to New Hampshire Thursday and formally announced he will seek to unseat President Obama in 2012.  Despite his formal announcement being overshadowed by Governor Sarah Palin’s visit, it’s official: Romney is in for 2012.

Can Romney win the nomination? The former Governor of the People’s Republic of Massachusetts has a very well-documented laundry list of problems. Romney supporters cringe at similarities between the Bay State’s health care program and Obamacare. Romney has shown himself to be a clear and unadulterated flip-flopper on the hot-button issues such as abortion, gun control, immigration, and gay rights.

In his 1994 bid for Senate, Romney said, “I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. I believe since Roe v. Wade has been the law in this country for 20 years, we should sustain and support it. I sustain that law and the right of a woman to make that choice…” Romney would ultimately go on to proclaim himself to be “pro-life.” The late Senator Edward Moore Kennedy, when campaigning against Romney in 1994, quipped, “(My opponent isn’t pro-choice or anti-choice, he’s multiple choice.”

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Shea-Porter To Face Democrat Primary

The Concord Monitor is reporting that Portsmouth businesswoman Joanne Dowdell intends to challenge former Congresspersonista Carol SEIU-Porter for a shot at Frank Guinta in 2012.

NoLabels, NoWay

I think I nailed it on the head (here) back on November 17th with my first impression of the group NoLabels.  But now that the Live Free or Die Alliance (LFDA), whom I have often opined springs from the same pedigree of liberal-fronted groups pretending to be middling ports of in-betweenedness in the political/ideological storm, is seeking the opinion of its members on NoLabels effort to penetrate New Hampshire, it is time to revisit this.

Let me save you the trouble of wondering what they are about.  I believe NoLabels goal is to shift the electorate to the left.  Their first, and so far only plank, is to open primaries to everyone who can vote.   Now ask yourself, who does that help?

It helps Democrats.

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It’s Another “Can’t We All Just Get Along Coalition”

John DiStaso’s Granite Status alerts us to the formation of yet another group designed to help American’s ‘find a copacetic political medium.’  This one is called NoLabels. Like similar ‘groups’ (I’ll call them out in a moment) this one wants to bring the self-proclaimed rational people from both sides into the center.

From DiStato

A new advocacy group that disdains "hyper-partisanship" and promotes "the vital center" is trying to make in-roads in New Hampshire.

…

"Ultimately, unless we get rid of some of our ideological intensity, we are not going to be served by government."

The group is being fronted locally by former Portsmouth mayor and so-called centrist democrat Steve Marchand.  I’m not going to waste time on whether Marchand is centrist or not, in fact I think I’ll skip the preview reel altogether and get to the point.

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(D)i Fruscia Takes His Toys And Goes…

With any luck this will be the last time Tony (D)iFruscia leaves the republican party.  Kevin Landrigan reported yesterday that (D)iFrusica, who lost his seat in the primary last Tuesday has officially declared himself an independent.  Mr. (D)iFruscia–and oddly enough Harrel Kirkstein (spokesman for the New Hampshire democrat party) agree that this is another example … Read more

Primary Night (scratch that) “Morning After” Update

The initial indications showing Frank Guinta with the lead have continued as the evening has developed but the race tightened with Rich Ashooh closing to withing a small percentage.  In the end Guinta prevailed with Sean Mahoney–who conceded early coming in third place. The Ovide/Kelly race is so close it still has not been called. … Read more

The NRSC Needs To Be Spanked Around Some More

The National RINO Senatorial Committee (NRSC) seems poised to deny the peoples choice in Delaware any of their precious treasure. Too bad some of that treasure comes from regular republicans like the people who selected Christine O’Donnell as their candidate for November.

Primary Day Open Thread [Updated]

Primary Election Day Open Thread. Why is your candidate the one who will win?  Why will your opponent lose? What do we need to focus on heading into November.  Get it out of your system because tomorrow we are all on the same team. After today we have but one opponent in every race and … Read more

September 15th.

Do we have the sense to realize that with at least three to five well organized groups already keyed in to the base and in contact with the independent voters for every race, that by shifting these supporters into a massive push on September 15th to back each of the primary winners (along with a focused and parallel GOP effort in every local race), all the way to November, that we will not only take back the state, but take it back with huge margins?

Following Mahoney’s Money Part II -That Dog Just Won’t Hunt.

Under the direction of the disclosure-challenged Pat Hynes Sean Mahoney has surrounded himself with a group  of advertising and political consultants who all share a common thread.  They were all at some point (or still are) part of American’s for Job Security (AJS) and are connected to Mahoney and his Potemkin campaign.

Stephen DeMaura–from Cross Target Poll fame, is the current head of AJS.  Pat Hynes, according to at least one source, is still listed with the Virginia Secretary of State as an AJS director but regardless has been a director with the group; Hynes is of course also involved with CrossTarget, and in the employ of Mahoney to the current tune of at least $32,000.00.  Dave Carney is a former top staffer at AJS and the current CEO of Norway Hill Associates.  Norway Hill has netted over $28,000.00 from the Mahoney campaign for consulting and printing so far.  Michael Dubke, former head of AJS, runs Crossroads Media which is apparently in the same suburban Washington Office Park as AJS; Crossroads has been paid over $569,000.00 by Mahoney for advertising and consulting–mostly Radio and television I would guess.  Dubke, interestingly enough, is valued as an attack ad guy, which explains a spin off from Crossroads–Target Point Consulting which appears to focus on micro-targeting and research, probably for negative campaign  strategies.  Target point’s customers are a well kept secret, so we can hypothesize that Crossroads funnels money to them for research it uses in its ad campaigns for it’s customers, of which Mahoney is a big one.  And oh, look–Mahoney went negative.

Keep following the money–it get’s better.

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Following Mahoney’s Money Part I

The recent polling done by CrossTarget for Americans For Prosperity (AFP) has too many links to Mahoney to be taken seriously as an outside poll.   And while trying to research the poll and the people connected to it, I discovered an almost incestuous collaboration of professional political consultants, and insiders to the Mahoney for congress checkbook that all circle around Americans For Job Security.

CrossTarget, the polling organization, was created by Stephen DeMaura and Patrick Hynes, both connected political insiders.  DeMaura is no fan of Guinta, and Hynes works for Mahoney.   So why would AFP choose CrossTarget for a poll given these obvious questions of conflict?  I have no idea why, but it was a bad call by Lewandowski and it questions AFP’s neutrality on the race if there even is one.

As for Hynes and DeMaura, they have connections to a more complex relationship with current and former members of AJS (maybe there’s no such thing a a former member of AJS) that conveniently lead repeatedly back to Sean Mahoney’s campaign expense report.

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Murkowski Concedes

The larger message is that the right is taking the job of Senator a bit more seriously this cycle. I can only wonder if they will do the same thing here in New Hampshire.

For whom the poll tolls…

NH%20Voting%20Booth.jpgWell, we’ve had some poll data to digest these past couple week and, due to my instinctive craving to analyze the data, I’m going to summarize the results, and throw in some conjecture with it.

Poll #1:  NH Young Republican Picnic Straw Poll, (and here) conducted Saturday August 7, 2010

  • Senate – Ayotte 59, Lamontagne 57, Bender 44, Binnie 12, Lamare 2

Numbers were so close (between #1 and #2), that the votes had to be recounted.  As I’ve said, inside the activist community, and in public polls, this is looking like a 4-way horse-race (3-way at least), and anyone’s to win, for now.

Binnie’s big-money advantage on the airwaves and his poor reception among the activist and Conservative communities, seem to cancel each other out.  Even though he lives in Rye, where this picnic was held (!??!), Binnie was a no-show, to the "surprise" of the organizers.  Maybe he’s concerned about being ambushed by a bunch of smart-ass youngsters on social issues, after the recent Cornerstone Ad?

There’s still a lot of golf to be played in this tournament, though…

  • Congress D2 – Horn 82, Bass 52, Giuda 19, Reilly 2

Jennifer Horn gave a large thwap! to Charlie Bass this time, with a 30-vote margin.  If I am correct, Jennifer hasn’t lost a straw poll this year.  And I thought, at first, that the UnionLeader reporter wasn’t interested in reporting Bob Giuda’s vote-count, but then I saw him listed with 19 votes, in a later paragraph, where all of the no-so-front-runners were listed.

  • Congress D1 – Guinta 91, Ashooh 40, Mahoney 34, Bestani 8

Frank Guinta continues his Horn-like command of the straw polls, more than doubling-up everyone else.

  • Governor – Stephen 86, Kimball 72, Testerman 9, Emiro 6.

Although he fares better at Tea Party and 912 events, don’t count Jack Kimball out of this race just yet.  With 5 weeks to go, anything can happen.  Jack has a way of heating up the inner-passions of his listeners, and if he can get in front of more of them outside the activist community, quickly, he could surge ahead and catch John Stephen.

I really like, respect and admire Karen Testerman, but she could do more good at this point by endorsing either Stephen or Kimball, giving one of them a boost in the home-stretch, with her loyal, respectable following.

Poll #2:  WMUR Granite State Poll, for Congressional Districts 1 and 2, conducted by the UNH Survey Center, published on July 29, 2010…

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Contested Primaries

If you happen to have a contested Republican House Primary in your district (or maybe you don’t know if you do), there’s a place on-line to get a quick view of who is running.  Over at a web site called New Hampshire Election Information, no affiliation with the state sites, they have a list of the contested … Read more

Hodes Anoints

Back in April Paul Hodes took the original tack of reminding us that Kelly Ayotte was ‘picked’ by the GOP establishment.  It’s a common theme played up by the left so Hodes was just being a good democrat an repeating what he’d been told. I don’t know what Ms. Ayotte, who was essentially picked by … Read more

Latest Straw Poll results are in…

The Rockingham County GOP "Meet the Candidates" Picnic and Straw Poll was held today in Brentwood, with some surprising, and not so surprising results… The thing to consider is that this was a County GOP-sponsored event, which brings out the party-oriented community, not just the hardcore activists that we saw at the CNHT picnic.  I’m … Read more

Not so fast….

I received an email yesterday from the Republican Party of New Hampshire.  I am registered Republican, and have subscribed to the NH GOP’s mailing list.

The opening paragraph goes like this:

"Our Republican leadership team did a great job in setting the table for the November Elections.  We recruited more candidates for state office than the opposition party for the first time in 4 years, and our candidates are really good candidates!"

While it is true that more Republican candidates filed than Democrats (and that we have "really good" candidates), I feel a little unsettled by the notion that the GOP seems to be taking much of the "recruiting" credit.

From my vantage point, it looks like the majority of candidates filed on their own accord, not because of any GOP recruiting.  In fact, I would say that a large number of the "first time" candidates are part of, or are very sympathetic with the 912, Tea Party, Libertarian, or Free State mindsets.  They have simply had enough, deciding on their own, or at the request of friends, to be part of the correction.

I think it would benefit the established GOP to show a bit more humility towards this phenomenon, else feel a potential backlash of a significant part of their “membership”.

I would have started off the email with…

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Connolly’s Not In The Clique?

Mark Connolly may not be challenging Paul Hodes for the Democrat nomination for the US Senate after all.  No, I don’t think Obama offered him a job. (They’d probably offer Hodes a job to let someone else run if he wasn’t already a connected insider)  Actually I suspect the State Party put its jackboot on … Read more

The Wives Of Carroll County

File this under “well what do you know.” Apparently, if your wife has legally posed topless on an amateur internet porn site under an anonymous name, and you happen to be running for Carroll county Sheriff, and the party chairman finds out, you may have to abandon your campaign.

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