The Rockingham County GOP "Meet the Candidates" Picnic and Straw Poll was held today in Brentwood, with some surprising, and not so surprising results…
The thing to consider is that this was a County GOP-sponsored event, which brings out the party-oriented community, not just the hardcore activists that we saw at the CNHT picnic. I’m going to theorize that these results will better reflect what we could see in September’s primary vote (unless, of course, a majority of the voting tickets were not purchased by the candidates themselves, as some speculate).
(In case you missed it, the ‘Grok reported on the most recent straw poll, at the CNHT Picnic on July 10th…)
Senate – Bender (25%) Lamontagne (24%) Ayotte (24%) Binnie (23%)
Jim Bender came out on top with a slim one-point victory over both Kelly Ayotte and Ovide Lamontagne. While only winning by one point, I don’t think Bender has topped a straw poll yet. I’m guessing you can credit his latest commercial for this pull-ahead. Bill Binnie, and his big pile of money, came in one point behind that, at the bottom, in his home-county. Essentially, the Senate contest is anyone’s race, proving, at least for now, that money can’t buy you love.
Other polls are showing, and confirming, that this is shaping up to be a 4-way race.
Congress D1 – Guinta (36%) Mahoney (27%) Ashooh (19%)
In this case, Mahoney (former NH RNC Committee member) comes in 2nd to Guinta. In the CNHT poll, Ashooh took Silver to Frank’s Gold. Either way, Frank beats his nearest challenger by at least 10%.
Congress D2 – Horn (43%) Bass (32%) Giuda (23%)
As you would expect, Charlie does much better at a GOP event than his virtual CNHT "no-show" of 11%. Bob Giuda, in the real world, fares a little worse than his 30% CNHT showing. Like Frank, Jennifer is leading her next challenger by at least 10% in both straw polls.
Governor – Stephen (52%) Kimball’s (41%)
Stephen beats Kimball by a slightly wider margin here (+3%) than at the CNHT event. This could end up being a neck-and-neck race as well.
Although there are a number of other Republican candidates in each of these races, none were mentioned in the report, other than those above.
According to the report, 900 votes were cast.