Well, we’ve had some poll data to digest these past couple week and, due to my instinctive craving to analyze the data, I’m going to summarize the results, and throw in some conjecture with it.
Poll #1: NH Young Republican Picnic Straw Poll, (and here) conducted Saturday August 7, 2010
- Senate – Ayotte 59, Lamontagne 57, Bender 44, Binnie 12, Lamare 2
Numbers were so close (between #1 and #2), that the votes had to be recounted. As I’ve said, inside the activist community, and in public polls, this is looking like a 4-way horse-race (3-way at least), and anyone’s to win, for now.
Binnie’s big-money advantage on the airwaves and his poor reception among the activist and Conservative communities, seem to cancel each other out. Even though he lives in Rye, where this picnic was held (!??!), Binnie was a no-show, to the "surprise" of the organizers. Maybe he’s concerned about being ambushed by a bunch of smart-ass youngsters on social issues, after the recent Cornerstone Ad?
There’s still a lot of golf to be played in this tournament, though…
- Congress D2 – Horn 82, Bass 52, Giuda 19, Reilly 2
Jennifer Horn gave a large thwap! to Charlie Bass this time, with a 30-vote margin. If I am correct, Jennifer hasn’t lost a straw poll this year. And I thought, at first, that the UnionLeader reporter wasn’t interested in reporting Bob Giuda’s vote-count, but then I saw him listed with 19 votes, in a later paragraph, where all of the no-so-front-runners were listed.
- Congress D1 – Guinta 91, Ashooh 40, Mahoney 34, Bestani 8
Frank Guinta continues his Horn-like command of the straw polls, more than doubling-up everyone else.
- Governor – Stephen 86, Kimball 72, Testerman 9, Emiro 6.
Although he fares better at Tea Party and 912 events, don’t count Jack Kimball out of this race just yet. With 5 weeks to go, anything can happen. Jack has a way of heating up the inner-passions of his listeners, and if he can get in front of more of them outside the activist community, quickly, he could surge ahead and catch John Stephen.
I really like, respect and admire Karen Testerman, but she could do more good at this point by endorsing either Stephen or Kimball, giving one of them a boost in the home-stretch, with her loyal, respectable following.
Poll #2: WMUR Granite State Poll, for Congressional Districts 1 and 2, conducted by the UNH Survey Center, published on July 29, 2010…
This NH Congressional Candidate poll was conducted between July 19-27, 2010, and included 504 random-selected NH adults (not necessarily voters). The Margin of error (MOE) is +/- 4.4%. These results include candidates from all parties.
The CD-1 and CD-2 sub-sample size was 264 and 240, with MOE’s of 6.0% and 6.3%, respectively.
Congress D2 –
- Hodes (up slightly): FAV 37%, UNFAV 30%, NEUTRAL 33%, NET-FAV = 7% (was 4% in April) Hodes’ situation has improved slightly, since April. His Net-Fav is 1% out of MOE, so he’s a flat candidate.
- Bass (down): FAV 34%, UNFAV 34%, NEUTRAL 33%, NET-FAV = 0% (was 25% in April) Bass has taken a serious Net Favorability hit, due to an Unfavorability spike, since April. He may be better off taking a vacation with John Kerry for the next couple months, instead of campaigning. Chalk some of this up to activist Conservatives, spreading the word about Charlie’s 1994-2006 record in Congress, when very few people were actually paying attention – Charlie’s wounded.
- Horn (up): FAV 21%, UNFAV 11%, NEUTRAL 68%, NET-FAV = 10% (was 5% in April) Jennifer has some ground to gain with regards to name recognition (compared to Bass, anyhow) but she’s gaining solidly. Her grassroots, hand-shaking efforts, begun last October, seem to be paying off. If Charlie drops and Jennifer leaps before the Primary election, like we’ve seen here, she could take the nomination again.
- Giuda (unchanged): FAV 5%, UNFAV 4%, NEUTRAL 90%, NET-FAV = 1% (was -1% in April) Unchanged throughout the entire campaign season, Giuda, like Ashooh and Mahoney, is trailing in the dust of the top-2 front-runners and, like Testerman, would help the cause more by stepping out, and shifting his base of Conservative followers to Bass or Horn (given my extreme distaste for Bass’ policies and his prior record, my appeal to Horn’s Conservative views, and the fact that the Giuda camp is conservative, I would suggest he get behind Horn).
- Swett (down): FAV 15%, UNFAV 20%, NEUTRAL 65%, NET-FAV = -5% (was -1% in April) Swett, who ran (and lost) against Charlie Bass in 2002, went from the basement steps, down to the level of the basement drainpipe since April, due to her increase in unfavorability.
- Kuster (up): FAV 10%, UNFAV 2%, NEUTRAL 88%, NET-FAV = 8% (was 3% in April) Although she has raised a ton of out-of-state money (mostly from unions), breaking all sorts of records, unless she uses a lot of it between now and September 14th, Swett looks like the nominee, in a squeaker, based on Favorability. Swett’s numbers show that she’s not a lock, so Kuster has a chance, but only if she quickly converts a chunk of the 88% neutral/unknown into Favorables. I expect we’ll be seeing a lot of Kuster ads in early September.
Here is how the 2 Republican front-runners fare in head-to-head matchups with Democrats Swett and Kuster:
Bass 47% leads former opponent Swett 30% by 17%, with 21% undecided, unchanged since April (remember that Horn trails Bass by only 13% in the Favorable category and beats him by 10% in Net-Favorability). Bass also leads Kuster 29% by 18%, a 6% wider lead than in April, with 23% undecided – showing pretty even with Swett against bass.
Horn 35% leads Swett 31% by 4%, with 34% undecided, unchanged since April. Horn 34% also leads Kuster 32% by 2%, also unchanged since April. It’s a close matchup but, again, if Horn continues to gain positive ground, she’s a winner.
–> My gut tells me that Swett will take the Democrat nomination, and Horn, in a last-minute upset over Bass, will take the Republican nomination. The wildcard for Horn, though, could be Bob Giuda, if he doesn’t drop out. If Giuda’s receives a % of votes equal to/more than the Bass-Horn margin, Charlie could snatch the nomination. If that happens, Bob Giuda, who will be responsible for the 2nd coming of Charlie Bass, will become a state-wide pariah to all Conservatives for years to come.
Congress D1 –
- Shea-Porter (up): FAV 41%, UNFAV 35%, NEUTRAL 24%, NET-FAV = 6% (was -7% in April) Porter’s unfavorability has declined, more than her favorability has increased, accounting for this improvement.
- Guinta (up): FAV 28%, UNFAV 17%, NEU 55%, NET-FAV = 11% (was 4% in April). As the campaign goes on, and name recognition takes hold, Guinta’s Net Favorability should improve. The clock is ticking, though, and Shea-Porter is surging. I’m really looking forward to seeing these 2 in a square-off debate in October.
- Ashooh (up): FAV 11%, UNFAV 3%, NEU 86%, NET-FAV = 8%. While 8% is a good net favorability, Ashooh’s 86% neutral (or unknown) status, compared to Guinta’s numbers, means that he’s not likely to take the nomination.
- Sean Mahoney’s (up slightly) situation is virtually the same as Ashooh’s. But, his favorability is lower and unfavorability higher than Ashooh’s. Don’t count on Mahoney taking the nomination either.
- Bob Bestani polls as a virtual unknown.
In a head-to-head matchup, Shea-Porter leads Guinta by 4%, exactly the opposite of his 4% lead over her, back in April. This is mainly due to her significant drop in unfavorability since then, even though Guinta’s situation has, in fact, improved – go figure. I’m not exactly sure where that came from – perhaps her lack of public Town Halls is helping? That appears to be the campaign strategy for some Liberals/Progressives this year – "out of sight, out of mind, no change in polls".
–> It looks like a Shea-Porter/Guinta race to November. I have no prediction on the outcome of this race yet.