NH Governor Race

Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, has predicted that incumbent Governor John Lynch will be reelected with between 55 and 58 percent of the vote.  I don’t think so.

The Real Clear Politics average of major polls has Lynch up 50 to 40.3 percent over challenger John Stephen, with 9.7 percent undecided.  But at this late point in the election, the “incumbent rule” cannot be ignored, which seems to be what Smith is doing.

Essentially, the “incumbent rule” is that voters who are still undecided late in an election disproportionately break for the challenger.  And so the important number is not the spread between the incumbent and the challenger, but where the incumbent is polling.
 
The rule of thumb is that if the incumbent is polling at 50 percent or higher, he is likely to win.  At 48 to 49 percent it is a toss-up.  And incumbents polling at 47 percent or less are likely to lose.

Smith’s own polling has Lynch…

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Sure, as Steve points out, he decries the ‘out of state’ groups now arrayed against him – even as he sought out the ‘out of state’ gay money to keep himself in money.  Looks like this John is simply caught in a lie.

And, as Americans for Prosperity is pointing out, not exactly making it safer for us on the street:

Former MA Democrat Governor Michael Dukakis had his Willy Horton moment – in a pique of "Liberal compassion" (remember the Progressive mantra – "there are no bad people, just people justifiably angry that society has done them wrong"), he let a convicted murderer out on a furlough who then turned around and killed again.

Is Lynch setting up a similar deal now, having supported and boosted NH’s SB 500 that allows release of serious criminals?  Letting convicted sex offenders out early?  Recidivism rates for this class of criminal don’t show a whole lot of comfort for the rest of us.

In this case, AFP has it right.  Steve has it right.  Time to hold Lynch to account.  Unemploy him is the right consequence – after all, he works for us!

Transcript of the ad after the jump along with the Press Release:

Looks like the days of Lynch’s habit of flying under the political radar are over.  Like many before him, his hubris of believing he could skate safely through the election without being touched is showing is being tattered from several directions…good! 

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I was very fortunate to attend a fundraiser for John Stephen for NH Governor this evening, in Dublin, NH.  The added bonus was the opportunity to meet Mr. Joseph and Mrs. Augusta Petrone.  Joseph Petrone was an NCO in Patton’s 3rd Armored Division in WWII, was later commissioned at West Point, was an aide to President Eisenhower, and was a US Ambassador to the UN European office.  Augusta and Joseph were co-chairs of the Reagan-Bush 1984 Iowa campaign.  Being a former military person and lover of history, meeting him was a special event.  I connected with Augusta via emails spanning the past 9 months, and meeting her was a treasured goal of mine.  The Petrone’s are significantly influential in NH (Republican) politics, and any event at their home is a special one.

Their home is a beautiful manse, built in 1902 by the Secretary of the Treasury for President William Howard Taft, who visited the residence a time or two. 

Among a crowd of about 120 supporters, former NH Governor, and current GOP chair, John H. Sununu, gave the formal introduction, then John Stephen addressed the group.  From the agenda of events and special guests that Stephen has lined up over the next couple weeks (and I was told there are more to be listed), I’d say that his campaign is wasting no time, and is being taken very seriously around the nation.  The remaining 5 weeks of this general election cycle are critical, because John Lynch must be defeated if we aim to stop the Democrats from completely ruining New Hampshire.

I donated to the campaign by attending this event, in order to help John Stephen cap the job that many fine NH conservatives are doing, running for the NH House and Senate.

John H. Sununu’s introduction of John Stephen:

John Stephen, Republican candidate for Governor:

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From James Pindell:

Your candidate did very well tonight… 

Indeed!  This is what James had to say:

I had posted up my "look to see" questions here, and now for my results.  Overall, I think that these are fair:

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