edmosca

Are you better off than you were when John Lynch became Governor in January of 2005?  If every voter asks himself or herself this question, it is hard to see how John Stephen can lose.

Granted some of us are better off than we were six years ago.

Bond traders are better off.  One maneuver used by Lynch to hide the stratospheric budget deficit he has created was to borrow over $150 million to pay for current spending.  That is like taking out a credit card in your kids’ names to make the payments on your car loan, but no doubt some bond traders made some good commissions at the future expense of our kids.

Violent criminals are better off too.  They no longer have to serve their full sentences because, in an attempt to mitigate the budget deficit, Lynch signed a law that lets rapists, murderers and other violent criminals out of prison early.

And Lynch’s accountants, assuming they are paid by the hour, are better off too.  Lynch’s $150 million in borrowing to pay for current spending is just one of the many accounting gimmicks Lynch has used to mask his out-of-control spending.  Other ploys included crediting $80 million of federal education funding meant for the 2011 fiscal year to 2010 and overestimating revenues from projected sales of State assets.  Indeed, Lynch’s smoke-and-mirrors accounting was so inventive that he was able to announce a $70 million surplus for the 2010 fiscal year.

The vast majority of us, however, are not…

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Yet another good reason why every conservative should be working his or her butt off to elect John Stephen

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it, so let’s think back to 2001.  Then Governor Jeanne Shaheen vetoed the Legislature’s plan to reapportion the House and Senate, and the State Supreme Court then took it upon itself to redistrict the State.

The result was a judicial gerrymander for the ages.  Quoting from the far-left “Blue Hampshire” website: “Ten Senate districts lean Democratic, led by three overwhelmingly Democratic districts: District 5 (Hanover and Lebanon area), District 10 (Keene area), and District 21 (Dover and Durham area). Six districts lean Republican, though none are as heavily partisan as the three Democratic districts.”  And that is even after subsequent legislation that watered down the judicial gerrymander in nine of the 24 senate districts!
 
The State Constitution directs the Legislature to…

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Obama repeatedly told us that Obamacare would reduce the cost of health insurance.  It does just the opposite.  The Congressional Budget Office says that premiums will double over the next six years.

But perhaps the biggest whopper that Obama told was that Obamacare would reduce the federal deficit.  The Cato Institute calculates that Obamacare will add more than $352 billion to the national debt over the next ten years, despite shifting $4.3 trillion of costs to businesses, individuals and state governments.

A total of 20 states have joined a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of Obamacare.  New Hampshire is not one of them, despite the strong constitutional case against Obamacare.

The individual mandate, the lynchpin of Obamacare, is not authorized by either the Commerce Clause or the Necessary and Proper Clause.  The Commerce Clause gives Congress the power “to regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes.”  Not purchasing health insurance is not commercial activity, never mind interstate commercial activity.

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Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, has predicted that incumbent Governor John Lynch will be reelected with between 55 and 58 percent of the vote.  I don’t think so.

The Real Clear Politics average of major polls has Lynch up 50 to 40.3 percent over challenger John Stephen, with 9.7 percent undecided.  But at this late point in the election, the “incumbent rule” cannot be ignored, which seems to be what Smith is doing.

Essentially, the “incumbent rule” is that voters who are still undecided late in an election disproportionately break for the challenger.  And so the important number is not the spread between the incumbent and the challenger, but where the incumbent is polling.
 
The rule of thumb is that if the incumbent is polling at 50 percent or higher, he is likely to win.  At 48 to 49 percent it is a toss-up.  And incumbents polling at 47 percent or less are likely to lose.

Smith’s own polling has Lynch…

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