Articles tagged as

Imperial College

April 5: Murray Model Projections for New Hampshire vs. Numbers Reported by DHHS … the Model is a Damn Joke.

by Ed Mosca

Here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 5th … in terms of hospitalizations, 64 more people would be hospitalized in New Hampshire for Coronavirus, bringing the total of hospitalized to 638: DHHS reports a cumulative total of 92 hospitalized. So, the Murray Model is over-projecting hospitalizations by 546 or nearly 7-X. … Read more

April 4: Murray Model Projections for New Hampshire vs. Numbers Reported by DHHS (UPDATED)

by Ed Mosca

THIS POST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT DDHS NUMERS RELEASED TODAY. Here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 4th … in terms of hospitalizations, 66 more people would be hospitalized in New Hampshire for Coronavirus, bringing the total of hospitalized to 574: DHHS reports a cumulative total of 86 hospitalized. So, … Read more

April 3 Coronavirus: Another Bad Miss by the Murray Model

by Ed Mosca

So here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 3rd … in terms of hospitalizations, 61 more people would be hospitalized in New Hampshire for Coronavirus, bringing the total of hospitalized to 508: The reality: seven new hospitalizations … 80 hospitalizations in total: So the Murray Model at this point is overestimating … Read more

Lakes Region General Hospital Furloughs 500 Workers on Account of Flawed Models Vastly Overestimating Impact of Coronavirus

by Ed Mosca

From the Laconia Daily Sun: Lakes Region General Hospital is furloughing 500 full-time employees, LRGH President and CEO Kevin Donovan said Friday. It will keep its emergency department, critical care and coronavirus treatment services open as it deals with the financial fallout of the pandemic, … The hospital was struggling with a high debt load … Read more

April 2 Coronavirus: The Murray Model vs. The Actual Numbers for New Hampshire

by Ed Mosca

So here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 2nd … in terms of hospitalizations, 447 people would be in the hospital for Coronavirus: The actual number is at the most 73 people are hospitalized (the number reported by DHHS is “have been hospitalized” so some of the number reported may have … Read more

#FakeNews Concord Monitor Reports NH Facing Ventilator Shortage … Based on … You Guessed it … Flawed Murray Model

by Ed Mosca

This: If you have been following my posts, you know the IHME model, which I call the Murray Model, has been massively overestimating the impact of Coronavirus on New Hampshire. Paraphrasing from yesterday’s post, while the Murray Model was predicting 405 would be hospitalized in New Hampshire on April 1, 2020 on account of Coronavirus, … Read more

April 1 Coronavirus: The Murray Model vs. The Actual Numbers for New Hampshire

by Ed Mosca

So here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 1st … in terms of hospitalizations, 405 people would be in the hospital for Coronavirus: The actual number (covidtracking.com) is a total of 59 hospitalized to date: So at a minimum, the Murray Model overestimated needed hospital beds by 346, or 7X. As … Read more

Murray Model Revised Yet Again – Now Saying NH Would Have Seven-Times as Many Coronavirus Hospitalizations YESTERDAY as Actually Hospitalized

by Ed Mosca

Last night (3/31), at about 11:00 P.M., I posted Murray Model Predicted New Hampshire Would Need Three-Times as Many Hospital Beds Today for Coronavirus Than Number Reported by DHHS. At that time this is what the Murray model said New Hampshire hospitalizations for the Coronavirus would look like: Now, less than twelve hours later, the … Read more

Murray Model Predicted New Hampshire Would Need Three-Times as Many Hospital Beds Today for Coronavirus Than Number Reported by DHHS

by Ed Mosca

So here is today’s update on Coronavirus from DHHS: So 49 persons in New Hampshire have been hospitalized for Coronavirus. I have no idea … and the DHHS website does not say … if that many remain hospitalized. The actual number of hospitalized today (March 31st) could be much lower. But let’s assume that there … Read more

Murray Model Drastically Revises New Hampshire Coronavirus Projections Overnight

by Ed Mosca

So, yesterday I posted about the Murray Model’s projections for New Hampshire. Here is what the model was projecting yesterday: I checked this morning and the projections have been drastically revised. Now the model is predicting a peak in less than three weeks, not four weeks. And the mortality prediction has dropped from 351 to … Read more

How Deadly is Covid?

Virginia Extends Coronavirus Lockdown to Mid-June

by Ed Mosca

This: Meanwhile Scott Gottlieb, whose recommendations apparently are driving the federal government’s response, is talking about August as when we can expect to return to “some elements” of our “normal lives”: If we keep this country on lockdown until July or August, there will be no “normal” to come back to. The economy is not … Read more

The Murray Model – New Hampshire Shutdown to Continue At Least Into June.

by Ed Mosca

Last night, I posted about President Trump extending the federal guidelines for another month: But we need to know exactly what model is driving the decision to extend the guidelines. If we are headed into an economic downturn potentially worse than the Great Depression, we better be damn sure that the policies that are leading … Read more

More Problems With the Imperial College Coronavirus Model

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Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model. The initial projection from Ferguson’s model projects 2.2 million dead people in the United States. It also projected 500,000 dead in the U.K. from COVID-19.

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