THIS POST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT DDHS NUMERS RELEASED TODAY.
Here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 4th … in terms of hospitalizations, 66 more people would be hospitalized in New Hampshire for Coronavirus, bringing the total of hospitalized to 574:
DHHS reports a cumulative total of 86 hospitalized. So, the Murray Model is over-projecting hospitalizations by 488 or by 6.6-X.
The Murray Model projected 23 deaths by this point on account of Coronavirus:
DHHS has reported nine deaths “related to” Coronavirus. It is unclear whether the cause of death was Coronavirus or whether the cause of death was a preexisting medical condition and the deceased also had tested positive for Coronavirus. Assuming that the cause of death was Coronavirus, the Murray Model is over-projecting by 2.5-X.
The usual reminder: the Murray Model projections assume the containment measures we have in place are in place. In other words, the model is NOT what would happen without mitigation. It purports to depict what we are facing even with mitigation.