So here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 2nd … in terms of hospitalizations, 447 people would be in the hospital for Coronavirus:
The actual number is at the most 73 people are hospitalized (the number reported by DHHS is “have been hospitalized” so some of the number reported may have been discharged):
So at a minimum, the Murray Model overestimated needed hospital beds by 374, or 6X. Indeed the Murray Model projected that there would be 74 more people hospitalized by Coronavirus today than the actual total number of people hospitalized and non-hospitalized who are deemed positive (447 vs. 373).
As far as mortality, the Murray Model projected 3 deaths today, and a cumulative fifteen deaths:
The actual number of deaths attributed to Coronavirus is five.
And to reiterate, the Murray Model projections assume the containment measures we have in place are in place. In other words, the model is NOT what would happen without mitigation. It purports to depict what we are facing even with mitigation.
The Murray Model is garbage.
