Lakes Region General Hospital Furloughs 500 Workers on Account of Flawed Models Vastly Overestimating Impact of Coronavirus - Granite Grok

Lakes Region General Hospital Furloughs 500 Workers on Account of Flawed Models Vastly Overestimating Impact of Coronavirus

From the Laconia Daily Sun:

Lakes Region General Hospital is furloughing 500 full-time employees, LRGH President and CEO Kevin Donovan said Friday.

It will keep its emergency department, critical care and coronavirus treatment services open as it deals with the financial fallout of the pandemic, …

The hospital was struggling with a high debt load and major revenue issues before the pandemic, which exacerbated its problems as elective surgeries and other profit-driving procedures had to be canceled to prepare for an expected surge of COVID-19 patients.

The “expected surge” must be based on the doomsday scenarios from modeling, which thus far have massively overestimated the impact of Coronavirus.

Today, for example, the Murray Model predicts 4 additional coronavirus deaths in New Hampshire … for a total of 19 … and 61 additional hospitalizations … for a total of 508 occupied beds. DHHS at this point has not updated its website. Yesterday’s #’s – 5 total deaths and 73 cumulative hospitalizations.

Maybe we should start rescheduling the elective surgeries and the procedures that were cancelled in anticipation of the doomsday scenarios … and get those people who were just furloughed back to work.

Unlikely. That would mean admitting the modeling we are using is wrong.