So here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 3rd … in terms of hospitalizations, 61 more people would be hospitalized in New Hampshire for Coronavirus, bringing the total of hospitalized to 508:
The reality: seven new hospitalizations … 80 hospitalizations in total:
So the Murray Model at this point is overestimating needed hospital beds by 428, or 6.35X.
Yet the Governor is still making policy based on the Murray Model’s doomsday projections:
With respect to mortality, the Murray Model predicted four more deaths today for a total of 19:
The actual number reported by DHHS was two deaths related to Coronavirus (both over age 60), for a total of seven deaths. Note, however, that DHHS does not report whether the death was caused by Coronavirus or whether the death was caused by a preexisting medical condition and the deceased also tested positive for Coronavirus.
And, again, the Murray Model projections assume the containment measures we have in place are in place. In other words, the model is NOT what would happen without mitigation. It purports to depict what we are facing even with mitigation.
