In a front page story from the Wednesday Union Leader the group AIDS Services for the Monadnock Region has run into trouble. After a presentation at a local High School they offered ‘safe sex kits’ to students. The distribution approved by the school’s administration stopped after learning that flavored lubricant and candy were included with the condoms that are—dare I say traditionally?—handed out. Neither parents nor administrators were pleased by the message that “flavored lubricant” sends to 14-year olds.
The money shot, I’m sorry quote, comes from Monadnock School Board member Bruce Barlow.
“You can’t hand something like that to a 14-year-old boy and expect him to respond to it as an adult would.”
Seventy-thousand years of human history passed us by and somehow we missed this until now?
And by the way did Susan Mac Neil, the executive director of AIDS Services, know that flavored lube might encourage oral sex, and that teens who have oral sex are more likley to have intercourse? That’s what we heard.
And what’s up with the candy, Little girl? Candy? In a High School. That’s not a healthy snack.
In all seriousness, does handing out condoms send any different message? According to AIDS services and school administrators who approve, it says “we know you will have sex so please do so responsibly.” I am forced to agree that if sex is on the menu, condoms need to be there, but I have long since pivoted on the issue of condom delivery in the public school system. At this point it will only encourage them or send a mixed message.
Back in the old days, before I became suspicious of government and left wing “do-goodery,” I supported condom distribution in High Schools. These days it is not so much the condoms that concern me as the social engineering that goes with it. Part of the plan includes cultural propaganda, the diminution of certain unpopular moral and religious values, and then there are the statistics spewed by groups like AIDS Services who say they teach abstinence but act on the assumption that this will not stop teens from having sex.
What did Yoda say? “That…is why you fail.”
The stats I took issue with are claims by Susan Mac Neil, AIDS services Executive Director. She argues that not only are kids having sex, that of the 63,000 new AIDS cases diagnosed each year, half the cases diagnosed are in people age 14-25.
So what about these figures? I can’t duplicate them. The CDC reported 41,000 diagnosed cases in 2008 from 37 US states that report this data. Even if you extrapolate out to 50 states using estimates and averages you don’t get more than 55,000 nationally. Susan is padding her numbers by at least 15% from the most recent estimates available, even if we are generous.
Looking at historical data (all AIDS cases ever reported) the diagnosed rate in the 14-25 age group gets even smaller. For ages 13-24 it is just over 4%. If we add the next tier and go 13-29 instead of 14-25 it is only 16%. That’s not half the new cases by more than half. And maybe Susan’s "numbers" work for donors to her non-profit but even under the rounding rules she is not even in the ballpark with this.
Factor in ‘method of transmission’ and demographics the odds dwindle further because over 50% of new infections come from male homosexuals (who represent only 4% of the entire population).
Looking at New Hampshire as a state the reported infection rate for all groups was only 2.1/100,000 in 2008. That equals 27 cases based on this data, which is .002% of the entire state population.
Either Susan has bad numbers or High School students (their parents and the administrators) are not the only ones getting a lube job.
Image: not intended to represent lube distributed by AIDS Services.
Image credit:CheapLubes.com
(SM: 4-5-11/9am. Edited post: added more links)
