Are you a casual China watcher? If you are there was a key policy meeting, the four day plenum in Beijing this week. It wraps up came with a statement; China will not let external pressures sway it from becoming a great power. It goes on to say China is entering a period of ‘strategic opportunity’ for development. Plans for next 15 years highlight key role for technological development. There’s not a whole lot new here.
The Chinese highlight the importance of boosting domestic markets. They set a new goal to turn the People‘s Liberation Army (PLA) into a modern military force by 2027. At that point analysts say, China aims have an army on par with that of the US.
The four-day plenum concludes with a TV ceremony. Interestingly the 360 plus attendees did not wear masks. Guess the Chinese have confidence the country has a handle on Covid-19. The end of plenum communique: China must seize the opportunity presented. The current global upheaval they view to be the opportunity.
The message highlights the international uncertainties and risks.
It also assures the audience China will be “steady in terms of our strategies and we will focus on getting our work done.”
The plenum has been under close scrutiny for signs of how the pandemic and the rising pressure from the West might affect Xi Jinping’s leadership. The meeting is how the Communist Party adjustments to its maps for the country’s medium and long-term development.
Moving forward near term
The plenum took up two blueprints: the 14th five-year plan and the development goals for 2035. Among the development goals is the construction of a fully modern army by 2027. That will mark the centennial of the founding of the PLA.
The interpretation of new centennial goal seems to be: “putting the PLA as a leading modern force in the world, one that can be on par with the US army”.
Junfei Wu is the deputy head of Hong Kong think tank Tianda Institute. He says this is the first time the Chinese leaders have included the military in such development goals. Wu says the goal was primarily targeted at Taiwan. The target is to build PLA’s capability to match the US army by 2027, so It can effectively deter interference by the US army around the Taiwan Strait.
Moving forward longer term
Xi has set two centennial goals before, to turn China into a “moderately prosperous society in all aspects” by 2021. Next year is the centennial of the founding of the party. The new goal is to turn China into a ”modern socialist country” by 2049. That year is the centennial of the founding of the PRC.
Julian Gewirtz is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council for Foreign Relation. He says the inclusion of these longer-term goals was significant.
“It‘s important to note that this plenum isn’t just discussing the next five-year plan… It’s also building out the vision for 2035, spanning greater technological self-reliance and other goals for economic and social development.”
Why 2035? That’s the halfway point between the ‘two centenary goals’ of 2021 and 2049.
“Whether or not Xi rules until 2035, this provides a medium-term frame for the actions under way, especially since the next several years will likely remain very challenging for China.”
The communique said China has made “remarkable achievements in curbing the pandemic”. It also said China aimed to become a “great nation” by 2035 on multiple fronts including technology, manufacturing quality, internet, digital technology, transportation, sports, health, culture and education. It highlights technological innovation as the key driver for China’s development for the next decade.
Technology is the way forward
China is looking beyond GDP growth rate in its outlines for key development plans.
The end of conference communique says, “By 2035, the economic and technological prowess and the comprehensive strength of the country will have taken a major leap forward … there will be major breakthroughs in core technologies and [China] will become a leader among innovative countries… We should insist on the core status of technological innovation in our overall plan of modernization, and make technological self-reliance the strategic pillar for our national development.”
No mention of “made in China 2025” was included. This was an ambitious project to turn China an innovative and industrial power. The United States used to argue it should restrict hi-tech exports, including computer chips to China. But the communique said the country would accelerate the pace of building up its modern industries and of turning the country into an industrial, online and digital power.
Stability requires stronger domestic markets
It also stressed the need for self-reliance and prioritized growth in its domestic markets.
“We have to form a strong and big domestic market … and accelerate the pace to nourish domestic demand.”
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China has been pushing a so-called “dual circulation” strategy. It is of developing domestic markets while remaining open to foreign trade and investment. It wants to build an internal economic ecosystem less prone to external sanctions and turbulence. The plenum also said it was important to ensure the security of the economy and society.
Gewirtz says: “China’s leaders now believe that China has one important new advantage … it has contained Covid-19 and its economy is growing again, making it harder for firms looking for opportunity amid a global economic crisis to walk away….Of course, we should question that official optimism, which seems to put too rosy a cast on a profoundly challenging situation.”
Overall assessment
Mainland analysts said the communique was a consensus document. It aims to address the concerns of policy makers from different sectors. Xie Maosong is a political analyst at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He says Beijing has learned from competing with itself. The communique aims to give a comprehensive view on areas where China needs to catch up.
“China has a deep understanding of its shortfalls in technology, economics and the standard of living that could be targeted by the US… it is only when the shortfalls are met that China can be impeccable.”
He said China would pay extra attention to digital technology in the future. It plays a key role in controlling the pandemic. Beijing’s rivalry with US is seen as the main external threat to its development.
The party statement did not contain anything controversial. The interests of all government departments have been taken care of in the communique. The moderate tone and the comprehensiveness of the communique show it is a consensus document. At the same time it wants to avoid further tension with the US. If you read between the lines the tone of the veiled references to the US are low key and firm.
