The world was a dangerous place before coronavirus. It is not going to be safer or friendlier because of it. We are still debating the proper ongoing response to the virus. Some of us are bickering back and forth about the infection’s origins, nature, and trajectory.
Honesty, brand, and propaganda
Many Americans are irate at China. It has become obvious to the casual observer it has been dishonest. It is apparent it is guilty of the lethal suppression of knowledge about the viral outbreak. China, however, has other huge problems, too.
China’s overseas brand is tarnished. Importers are unlikely to ever rely on China’s assurances. They will never again be sure of the safety or reliability of Chinese exports. They will know only that their producer is a serial falsifier. It is a producer capable of anything and willing to do anything to ensure power and profits.
China’s highly regarded propaganda machine no longer works. Its slanders of China’s critics as racists and xenophobes ring as false as its representations about the virus. The sheer number of countries suffering human and financial losses from Chinese lying is large. They won’t believe another word from Beijing.
Debts, economic strength and return of industries
China is now faced with a very serious question: How it will collect Silk Road debts? The Asian and African countries are now bankrupt. Most of them are accusing China of being racist and responsible for the global epidemic. They blame China for wrecking the economies from which China was planning to harvest profits.
China was beginning to lose the trade war with the U.S. even before the virus struck. Americans think China is huge, powerful, and rich. The situation is the Chinese per capita income is about a sixth of America’s. China produces only about two-thirds of the nominal gross domestic product of the United States. It also has four or five times as many people as America. Hundreds of millions of rural Chinese remain caught in poverty.
Beijing should expect lots of industries will return to America. Thousands of Chinese students and researchers will likely go home or be sent home. Their absorption of American science and technology was of significant importance to Chinese industry. China, however, will not meekly accept its new reduced post-viral status.
Conclusion
Instead, it seems likely to act even more provocatively; perhaps a better description is more desperately than ever. Rumors have spread China may be conducting nuclear tests. If true it would be doing so in violation of zero-yield global agreements. If true, it reminds us our adversaries are dangerous when cornered and wounded. China’s position in the world after coronavirus is that of a large aggressive economically wounded nation.