War

Exercising the First    by Doug Lambert

Got Imagination?

In the official report of the 9-11 Commission, one of the major concerns raised was that of a lack of imagination on the part of those whose job it is to think about such things. Page 346 of the report states, “Since the Pearl Harbor attack of 1941, the intelligence community has devoted generations of effort to understanding the problem of forestalling a surprise attack. Rigorous analytic methods were developed, focused in particular on the Soviet Union, and several leading practitioners within the intelligence community discussed them with us. These methods have been articulated in many ways, but almost all seem to have at least four elements in common: (1) think about how surprise attacks might be launched; (2) identify telltale indicators connected to the most dangerous possibilities; (3) where feasible, collect intelligence on these indicators; and (4) adopt defenses to deflect the most dangerous possibilities or at least trigger an earlier warning.” So what was the problem with this time tested system?

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Section 11.1 of the report concludes: “The methods for detecting and then warning of surprise attack that the U.S. government had so painstakingly developed in the decades after Pearl Harbor did not fail; instead, they were not really tried. They were not employed to analyze the enemy that, as the twentieth century closed, was most likely to launch a surprise attack directly against the United States.” It seems that, after the end of the Cold War, everybody, including those who shouldn’t have, turned a blind eye to the dangers of the world. Nobody apparently saw anything but peace and love and happiness. America took a collective holiday from history, which ended on September 11th, 2001.

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In the famous ancient Chinese text, “The Art of Warfare”, Sun-Tzu writes, “The ultimate skill in taking up a strategic position is to have no form. If your position is formless, the most carefully concealed spies will not be able to get a look at it, and the wisest counselors will not be able to lay plans against it.” The classic military guidebook reminds the reader that, “Warfare is the art of deceit. Therefore, when able, seem to be unable; when ready, seem unready; when nearby, seem far away; and when far away, seem near. …Attack where he is not prepared; go by way of places where it would never occur to him you would go.” Again from The 9-11 Commission Report: “We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures: in imagination, policy, capabilities, and management.” Imagination.

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Relations between the United States and France had cooled in the aftermath of World War I. A number of issues had driven the former allies apart, including:

• residual tensions from hard bargaining and perceived double-dealing at Versailles;
• the continuing effort of the U.S. to collect the full amount of war debts incurred by hard-pressed France;
• the embarrassment felt by France because of being assigned a lesser naval role at the Washington Conference (1921);
• the recent failure, regretted by both nations, of the Geneva Conference (1927).

An effort was made by French foreign minister Aristide Briand to warm-up relations between the two former allies. Columbia University professor James T. Shotwell met with Briand in France and suggested that a bilateral treaty be negotiated that would outlaw war between the two nations. Briand seized this idea and presented it in an open letter to the American people.

The Coolidge government, at least initially, was not interested in having its hand forced in diplomatic matters and offered no response. A few weeks later, Columbia President Nicholas Murray Butler sounded the same theme in a letter published in The New York Times. The press in New York and elsewhere began a drumbeat calling for the “outlawry of war.”

Even back then, the news media and their ideological comrades in acedemia espoused silly, utopian notions that failed in the face of reality.

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“Sixteen hours ago an American airplane dropped one bomb on Hiroshima, an important Japanese Army base. That bomb had more power than 20,000 tons of TNT.”

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“The Japanese began the war from the air at Pearl Harbor. They have been repaid manyfold. And the end is not yet.”

“an atomic bomb. It is a harnessing of the basic power of the universe. The force from which the sun draws its power has been loosed against those who brought war to the Far East.”

“We are now prepared to obliterate more rapidly and completely every productive enterprise the Japanese have above ground in any city. We shall destroy their docks, their factories, and their communications. Let there be no mistake; we shall completely destroy Japan’s power to make war. It was to spare the Japanese people from utter destruction that the ultimatum of July 26 was issued at Potsdam. Their leaders promptly rejected that ultimatum. If they do not now accept our terms they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never before been seen on this earth. Behind this air attack will follow sea and land forces in such numbers and power as they have not yet seen and with the fighting skill of which they are already well aware.”

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