This day in history: Tet Offensive. Could it happen again?

Exercising the First    by Doug Lambert

Got Imagination?

In the official report of the 9-11 Commission, one of the major concerns raised was that of a lack of imagination on the part of those whose job it is to think about such things. Page 346 of the report states, “Since the Pearl Harbor attack of 1941, the intelligence community has devoted generations of effort to understanding the problem of forestalling a surprise attack. Rigorous analytic methods were developed, focused in particular on the Soviet Union, and several leading practitioners within the intelligence community discussed them with us. These methods have been articulated in many ways, but almost all seem to have at least four elements in common: (1) think about how surprise attacks might be launched; (2) identify telltale indicators connected to the most dangerous possibilities; (3) where feasible, collect intelligence on these indicators; and (4) adopt defenses to deflect the most dangerous possibilities or at least trigger an earlier warning.” So what was the problem with this time tested system?

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Section 11.1 of the report concludes: “The methods for detecting and then warning of surprise attack that the U.S. government had so painstakingly developed in the decades after Pearl Harbor did not fail; instead, they were not really tried. They were not employed to analyze the enemy that, as the twentieth century closed, was most likely to launch a surprise attack directly against the United States.” It seems that, after the end of the Cold War, everybody, including those who shouldn’t have, turned a blind eye to the dangers of the world. Nobody apparently saw anything but peace and love and happiness. America took a collective holiday from history, which ended on September 11th, 2001.

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In the famous ancient Chinese text, “The Art of Warfare”, Sun-Tzu writes, “The ultimate skill in taking up a strategic position is to have no form. If your position is formless, the most carefully concealed spies will not be able to get a look at it, and the wisest counselors will not be able to lay plans against it.” The classic military guidebook reminds the reader that, “Warfare is the art of deceit. Therefore, when able, seem to be unable; when ready, seem unready; when nearby, seem far away; and when far away, seem near. …Attack where he is not prepared; go by way of places where it would never occur to him you would go.” Again from The 9-11 Commission Report: “We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures: in imagination, policy, capabilities, and management.” Imagination.

In the August 9th [2004] issue of FrontPageMagazine (www.frontpagemag.com), an article written by David Meir-Levi entitled “Connecting the South American Terror Dots” reveals, “Since the early 1980’s, Arab terrorists have been sending thousands of their cohorts to the almost inaccessible jungle and mountain region between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay (known as the TBA, Tri-Border Area or La Triple Frontera). Terror training camps and arsenals have been established, virtually out of the reach of local law enforcement or defense forces; and elements from Hezbollah, al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, Hamas, and the Lebanese Drug mafia operate in partnership, freely and openly in conjunction with local organized crime and corrupt government officials.”

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Some of Mr. Meir-Levi’s information is derived from a report prepared under an interagency agreement by the Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, July 2003- entitled, “Terrorist and Organized Crime Groups in the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of South America”. His chilling piece continues: “The TBA has become a virtual haven for Islamic terror groups and a base for terror operations against South American targets. The large and growing Arab population of these states (in excess of 750,000 by local estimates) provides a community highly conducive to the establishment of Islamic terrorist sleeper cells throughout the area.” But hey, it’s only South America, right?

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A July 29th [2004] edition of the Houston Chronicle reporting on the recent apprehension of a suspected al-Quada member who had crossed the Mexican-American border illegally notes, “Because immigration facilities along the border are often full, many non-Mexican immigrants are released on their own recognizance and ordered to appear before an immigration judge at a later time.” The same article quotes Eddie Flores, public information officer for the Border Patrol’s McAllen Sector: “Since last October, a total of 19,460 undocumented migrants from countries other than Mexico have been apprehended.” Gee, I wonder how many HAVEN’T been apprehended?

In late January, 1968, American forces and their South Vietnamese allies found themselves completely surprised with an unexpected series of attacks occurring almost simultaneously in numerous cities and towns across the entire area under US protection. This event is known as the Tet Offensive. The US effort never fully recovered from this multi faceted strike.

Two weeks ago, [August 2004] I discussed a Washington Times (www.washtimes.com) article reporting that “U.S. intelligence officials say a high-profile political assassination, triggered by the public release of a new message from Osama bin Laden, will lead off the next major al Qaeda terrorist attack.” It further stated that the planning for the attacks to follow the initial assassination “involves ‘multiple targets in multiple venues’ across the United States. …U.S. intelligence officials said they think that several al Qaeda terrorists already in the United States are part of the plot, although their identities and locations are not known. …The al Qaeda attack plans call for bombings using trucks and cars, and hijacked aircraft, including commercial airliners and helicopters.” Remember the movie Red Dawn? Just imagine… 

Some people have said Doug Lambert has a very vivid imagination. Perhaps the government should pay him for his talents? With an opinion on practically everything, his column appears every Thursday.