There’s LOTS of folks doing polls this year. I know this personally as every day I am getting between 2 and 8 calls / day wanting to know what I think (silly people, asking this ordinary schlub from Central New Hampsha, as if it mattered – heh!). Of all the polls, I generally trust Rassmussen the most as they consistently ask likely voters versus just adults or registered voters. Likely voters are the important ones, as they, of the three groups, will actually get into the car, drive to the polls, and actually cast their opinions to be tallied – remember, our voting percentages are nothing to raise a “Huzzah!” about in the vast majority of elections. So getting those that do so give more accurate results. Not only that, the others often end up with likely voters in their “election season ending” polls but use the other groups earlier on (it’s cheaper). Thus that is why you start seeing all of the polls start to congregate around the same numbers a week or two before the election – like we are doing now.
So, here in NH, what does Rasmussen say about the top races?
- Romney over Obama: 50% to 48% (500 Likely Voters on 10/23, with 95% confidence level). Margin: +/- 4.5%
- Ovide over Maggie The Red: 48% to 46% (500 Likely Voters on 10/23, with 95% confident level). Margin: 4.5%
Disclosure – I got called for this poll. Also, I notice that Rasmussen also has 1% choosing another candidate. Given the large number of Libertarians and rabid Ron Paul supporters in NH, I have consistently raised an eyebrow as to this low number (which has varies 1 – 5%). That said, it’s a toss up. I have not “gotten out” this season like I have in the recent past (for a number of personal reason), so I’m not so sure that I have a handle on this one. Certainly the Margin of Error for both says “Toss Up!”. Certainly the absolute blizzard of political ads by both sides has injected name recognition into peoples minds (conscious or not) so I don’t think that this will be THE factor.
