Recently the Mayor of Nashua was pleased to be able to inform everyone who would listen that Nashua’s financial management was ranked FOURTH in a nationwide survey of one hundred and fifty cities. Somehow this result was proof the City Administration was not misallocating funds or overspending.
That all is well.
The source cited was a survey by WalletHub titled “ 2021’s Best and Worst-Run Cities in America.”
While the Mayor did not misquote the published results, the implicit endorsement of the current City Administration should be viewed with a heavy dose of skepticism. There are a number of good reasons to question the importance of the published results and politicians should be particularly careful to avoid misleading the public by “cherry-picking” survey data findings.
We want to thank Arthur J. Corazzini for this Op-Ed. If you have an Op-Ed or LTE
you would like us to consider, please submit it to Editor@GraniteGrok.com.
The survey in question was an extensive and complicated exercise to develop a composite score or overall index of the quality of city services and rank one hundred and fifty cities on the basis of that score. Nashua was ranked fifth on the quality of City services and fourth overall, a robust outcome. However, a closer look at the sample data and the methodology used raises a host of questions regarding the extent Nashua officials should be bragging about the results.
Related: Did Someone Pay WalletHub Off? Its Data on Nashua is Different than Nashua’s!
First, the sample itself was a very mixed bag.
Nation-wide it included such diverse places as Detroit Mich, Baltimore MD, Huntington Beach CA, Orlando Fl, Boston MA, and Wash DC.
Beyond size, which the investigators tried to control for in their findings, there are important differences in geopolitical, cultural, and demographic profiles which are much more difficult to deal with before reaching conclusions about the relative competency of City management.
In order to construct their composite index, the investigators decided to measure the quality of services and “overall desirability” by specifying six areas of inquiry: Financial Stability, Education, Health, Safety, Economy and Infrastructure / Pollution.
Each area of inquiry was set up to contribute 16.67 pts to a total point score of 100. Within each category, separate metrics were specified and subject to either qualitative or quantitative measurement.
For example, within the education category two metrics were used. The first, the quality of the K-12 system (AS JUDGED BY SOMETHING CALLED “GREAT SCHOOLS.ORG ). Second, the High School graduation rate, a published statistic. Finally, the Quality score was assigned 11.11 of the 16.67 total points for the category and the graduation rate 5.56 pts.
In other words, the qualitative measure was judged twice as important as the measured graduation rate.
Similarly, “weights” were assigned within each of the categories for a total of 32 metrics spread across the six categories, each with its own “weight” within the category.
A perfect score required a city to capture 16.67 points in each category. WalletHub “experts assigned the points.
A good way to see how this worked is to look at the Financial Stability category. As determined by WalletHub, 13.3 of the 16.67 points were assigned to Moody’s City Credit Rating and 3.33 points to its’ Outstanding long-term debt. A city with considerable outstanding long-term debt BUT a AAA Moody’s credit rating could still score well.
Moody tells us that the average credit rating for a city is AA so the real effect of this measure is to penalize cities that have had their credit rating seriously downgraded to BA or worse (Chicago was in that position recently).
It is worth noting that Moody’s has begun to look more carefully at city pension fund commitments, a situation that could negatively affect Nashua’s rating and stability in the longer run.
Given that some of the metrics were qualitative and some quantitative and that the relative importance of any given metric was assigned by those conducting the survey, there is clearly room to quarrel with the final result.
One could reasonably argue that the weights assigned were questionable. Similarly one could argue that an important metric was omitted or a strange or inappropriate one included. As a case in point, the Great Schools metric was used to assign k-12 scores. There are a number of national rating services that place Nashua High Schools as approximately the seventeen hundredth best country-wide.
One wonders just where Great Schools ranked Nashua.
It is, nevertheless, interesting to see what results Wallet hub did publish in addition to its overall ranking.
Nashua was ranked fourth in Financial Stability, forty-second in Education, twenty-fifth in Health, thirtieth in Economic Health, and fourth in Safety.
Its high marks in Safety are generated by a low violent and property crime rate and should be celebrated. Coincidentally, it does raise questions about recent attempts to change the governance of the system. Apparently, it is working very well.
Interestingly, WalletHub gives Nashua high marks for its roads. This result may be due to the extent of well-constructed highway cutting through the City because Manchester also gets high marks and neither seems well deserved.
Overall, Nashua’s results are just “Okay.”
It is a cautionary tale not a report to brag about. It does not rank first in any category. It relies on high marks from Moody’s, a low crime rate, and considerable open space to score points.
Its health ranking is bolstered by low infant mortality rates and relatively robust Life Expectancy, items the City Administration has little direct influence over (and low violent crime and good policing certainly contribute in a positive way to life expectancy).
In summary, there are many who think the City is headed in the wrong direction. This survey, while interesting and certainly not above criticism, points out some things we are doing right, some areas where we have a long way to go, and certainly does not end debate.
Note: Shared Content may not necessarily reflect the views of GraniteGrok.com.
