On the day of the election, we published the UNH Survey Center’s projections for the NH Legisalture actually didn’t too bad compared to the Cook Political Report, which we also shared. Their projection was not very good.
Related: Another Prediction Fail: They Got the ‘4’ Right, It’s Just the Wrong Color
Turns out, it was a bit low: actual thus far is 210-187 with some races still to be decided (I went to the NH Secretary of State Election Results and the spreadsheets for the NH House (by counties) aren’t ready yet). But that was under a 2% underage – not bad at all. Good job.
NH Senate was a very conservative prediction: a tie:
And we now know that it was a complete flip: from 14-10 Dems to 14-10 Repubs. It ALMOST was a 15-9 where George Lambert just missed knocking off Donna Soucy (current NH Senate President).
And we know the Executive Council went against a prediction: WAY Red – Four to One (R to D).
