NH Journal quotes the Cook Political Report as saying that while Sununu will retain the Governorship, the Senate and House have gone from Toss Up to Lean Democrat (they obviously already have substantial majorities in both). NHJ also has the UNH Survey which shows a different picture (literally):
- NH Senate: from 14-10 Dem majority to a 12-12 tie
- NH House: from 233-166 Dem majority to a 207 – 193 Rep majority
NH Senate:
NH House:
The NH post is from Oct 24 so there may be a hitch here. The Cook Report talks about that who wins the Presidency may well have an effect on the down ballots. Given that date, 10/23, it is missing a lot of the tightening of the polls where Trump has either come within the margin of error or has taken an outright lead away from Biden.
Frankly, I have no idea if Trump is going to win (like in MMA, fighting like crazy to “steal the round”) or Biden will (coasting in from big leads all year long). For me, the deciding factor is this (and which NO ONE knows): how bigly is the “Shy Trump Voter” faction? That alone may decide everything.
And to make sure, I’m no predictor of winning or success – I just read a lot. But it will be interesting if the above holds up.
Only thing missing was an actual prediction for the Executive Council.
