The MYTH That New Hampshire Cannot Lift the Lockdown Until We Have …. “More Testing” - Granite Grok

The MYTH That New Hampshire Cannot Lift the Lockdown Until We Have …. “More Testing”


This from yesterday:

This is the latest excuse from Team-Lockdown to delay lifting the lockdown: “We need more testing!” “We’re flying bind without more testing!” “Until we ge more people tested, … ” BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

The truth is we know all we need to know to lift the lockdown.

First, we already know that there is no difference in the spread of COVID between States (and countries) that locked down and those that didn’t. I have already posted several references. Here is another (you need to subscribe to WSJ for the full article):

We ran a simple one-variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown, which ranged from minus-10 days (some states shut down before any sign of Covid-19) to 35 days for South Dakota, one of seven states with limited or no shutdown.

The correlation coefficient was 5.5%—so low that the engineers I used to employ would have summarized it as “no correlation” and moved on to find the real cause of the problem. (The trendline sloped downward—states that delayed more tended to have lower death rates—but that’s also a meaningless result due to the low correlation coefficient.)

There’s also this, which will take you to a podcast on the article:

I’ve been wanting an excuse to do a podcast with Joe for the longest time, and so here it is. In addition to going through the statistical evidence we have already that the total lockdown in most states doesn’t bear a lot of relation to the infection outcomes, we also talk about Sweden’s choice of an intermediate path, with only light shutdowns and quarantines, and with results that are better than many hard hit U.S. states and European countries, and worse than some others. If trends continue and Sweden remains in the middle of the statistical distribution, it will be a massive reproach to the total and prolonged shutdowns that are crippling our economy, and may come to be seen as the single most costly economic mistake in American history.

Second, we already know that COVID is no more lethal than the seasonal flu. I have already posted multiple references, but here is another:

On March 16, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London predicted a coronavirus death toll of more than two million in the United States alone. He arrived at this number by assuming that infection would be nearly universal and the fatality rate would be high—a terrifying prospect. The next day, Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis sifted through the data and predicted less widespread infection and a fatality rate of between 0.05 and 1.0 percent—not that different from the common flu. … all data trends since mid-March show that Ferguson was fantastically wrong and Ioannidis was largely right about its mortal threat. …

… a study from the Oise region of France found an infection rate of 25 percent—which, if it is true for France as a whole, suggests that the virus fatality rate in that country (which is considered hard-hit) is 0.13 percent. Studies of Santa Clara and Los Angeles County likewise show rates of infection far higher than experts imagined possible, indicating fatality rates of 0.1-0.2 percent, again in line with Ioannidis’s analysis. A study of women at a New York hospital who gave birth during the pandemic, and a study of a homeless shelter in Boston, likewise point to a disease far more widespread than testing has identified—and therefore with a far lower fatality rate than previously thought.

To reiterate, we already know all we need to know to reopen New Hampshire: (1) lockdowns are no more effective at stopping COVID than not locking down and (2) COVID is no more lethal than the seasonal flu.

But, I’m sure the Sununu-sycophants that monitor this blog will say: “we can’t risk it!” “better safe than sorry!” blah, blah, blah. Really? We are wrecking our economy … destroying small businesses and killing jobs … for no reason except this:

[the] fear of experts, policy-makers, and politicians that if they change course they will be exposed as poorly informed, reckless, and cowardly. Our entire ruling class, which united behind catastrophism and the untested methods of mass shutdown, is implicated in the unfolding fiasco.

We don’t have time to wait for the Governor’s blue-ribbon task-force … or whatever this sham is called … to present its “recommendations.” Other States are in the process of reopening and we can use those States as models – a process that takes hours NOT weeks. The lockdown needs to be lifted NOW.