Iowa’s Democratic Party announces a preliminary winner of their caucus… The selection comes on partial results that probably will change. (and have). With 62% of Iowa precincts reporting the results of Monday’s caucus, the results looked like this.
1. Pete Buttigieg with 26.9%.
2. Bernie Sanders with 25.1%
3. Elizabeth Warren with 18.3%.
4. Joe Biden with 15.6%
One person one vote…
In terms of the partial popular vote, Sanders led narrowly with 28,220 votes to Buttigieg’s 27,030. Warren got 22,254 votes, and Biden just 14,176. Poll watchers are still declaring the race too close to call. But don’t worry. There should be official results before the results from the New Hampshire primary are announced.
The amount of confidence one should have in the accuracy of the data… well, that’s up to you. The results usually come the evening of the caucus. Postponement of the release was necessary in order to conduct “quality control” measures… “Inconsistencies” in the precinct reporting makes the quality control measures necessary.
Who knows what the results actually are. Who knows why results tabulation became so difficult. There’s little use in speculating. It is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions from the partial results so far unveiled. Maybe the message is the party leadership just doesn’t think the vote tallies really matter anyway. Perhaps it is just a way to get super delegate results without involving them. Maybe who counts the votes is more important than who casts the votes.
The smart money said Iowa would be humiliating for Biden. That was reaffirmed when his campaign sought to indefinitely postpone the release of the precinct results. Biden campaign surrogates took to the airwaves Tuesday. They were casting doubt on the legitimacy of the caucus results. Obama told Biden before he launched his campaign “You don’t have to do this, Joe, you really don’t…” And Obama has not endorsed Biden… hint, hint. Biden’s allies in the media did not take the results well.
Buttigieg, 38, was quick to declare victory. In a short televised address from the campaign trail in New Hampshire said, “They’re not complete, but results are in from a majority of precincts, and they show our campaign in first place.”
The Sanders campaign took a victory lap as well. “We are gratified that in the partial data released so far it’s clear that in the first and second round more people voted for Bernie than any other candidate in the field,” according to senior adviser Jeff Weaver. Bernie said he was disappointed by the lower-than-expected voter turnout in Iowa.
Iowa election watchers note the final Iowa results, assuming the party ever discloses them, will likely favor Sanders. His people will assert this will put the socialist candidate in an even stronger position. Ask Ted Cruz about the impact of victories in delayed announcement situations. Iowa’s Democratic Party Announces a Preliminary Winner… Kinda.