EMail Doodlings - "How the can this movement support this insider?!?!?!?!?!" (Part 1) - Granite Grok

EMail Doodlings – “How the can this movement support this insider?!?!?!?!?!” (Part 1)

There is one very upset and confused guy on one of the email lists I’m on; a Libertarian TEA Party kind of guy, he JUST cannot for the life of him, understand why Newt Gingrich is surging so with Movement Conservatives.  And why TEA Partiers are flocking to Newt just is beyond his comprehension.  So, the above question uttered from his fingertips.  Never wishing to leave a challenge undone, I answered:  “A tool“.  Now, in many groups, that would be fightin’ words – in this case, merely “a tool with which to achieve an end”. And I wish, at the time, that I had thought of that two word answer.  Silly me, had to go and use a whole bunch more instead (H/T: Gallup for the chart) (lightly edited):

I will agree with you that beating Obama is not a done deal.  We all, as uber-political junkies know that because we know that a lot of effort is going to be done by the vast Left Wing / Union conspiracy in their GOTV (Get Out The Vote) efforts.  We all, from our lofty positions (heh!) known that many people are not really all that knowledgeable about ALL the issues and all of the nuances thereof, and will therefore , may well vote for Obama.  Again.

Being here in NH, I can tell you the overriding issue to Movement Conservatives and TEA Partiers is not to beat Obama right now but to beat Romney.  That is the near term issue that is forefront on every TEA Party / 9-12 / Conservative’s mind.  Five weeks to go.

The Libertarian part of the Republican Party has already…

discarded Gary Johnson (who, from a practical standpoint, should have dropped out right after Ron Paul got in – his support dropped to nil, even though I know him to be a decent guy having interviewed him several times.  Having now made overtures to the Libertarian Party helps him not a whit with any Rs still willing to give him a look).  TPaw probably dropped out too soon, but exposed a glaring weakness  that in THIS Cycle is a “necessary attribute” –  bare knuckle fighting (yes, he was too nice).  Yet, even as the social conservative Rick Santorum exhibts that he has what TPaw lacked, he has not gotten the traction that his year and a half of steady working here in NH one would have thought. Michelle had her combative moments, but went off into the wilderness somewhere in Iowa.  Cain is done (darn!) – I hope someone does a full investigation, as one pundit put it right “Why is it, for all the years he worked and for all the companies for which he worked, that the allegations ONLY are coming from a 3 year span and ONLY from one company?”.  “Ron Paul” will not be the nominee (to steal words from Erick at RedState).  Jon Huntsman keeps trying to crack bad jokes (and will leave it at that).

Sorry, Mitt is not a Movement Conservative (although, given the times he’s been running for office, I do consider him a professional politician).

This Cycle, too, was supposed to be all about the new venue of Social Media – master that, control that, and you would do well if not outright win it. Sarah Palin has amply shown that she is a Jedi Master at it, but stayed in the meditation room. This Cycle was also supposed to be “become the TEA Party dude / dudette, and you had a fairly good pathway to winning. ”  Er, not quite – and now we know why we “play the game” – no outcome is the way that the Wise Heads believe it should be.

And the Problem is, it hasn’t turned out the way folks thought, for once again, the Old Media has confounded  the campaigns with with their secret weapon – TV debates and the large number of them.   This allowed shallow funded candidates an oxygen tube and also shifted “what is important” to the small screen from the small house events. So, combine the debates, the “beat Romney”, and “Beat Obama”, and what did that Necessary Attribute turn out to be?  Actually, two things: Combativeness and Debating Skills.

Sure, Rick and Michelle can be combative.  Nor can Ron Paul as he cannot convince most Conservatives and more Moderates that his foreign policy is not one of retreat (and Americans HATE to retreat – least, not the good ones (THAT should get me some emails!)). None of them can match Newt in debating skills.  He has also succeeded in a number of other “must do” tactical items:

  • Reinforce in Conservatives minds that the MSM is NOT our friend – take that battle right to the enemy and he has done so (and done it well)
  • Be gracious to all of his rivals on stage – he has deftly done that while outlining his differences in a positive way; Conservatives remember the Happy Warrior of Reagan and may be seeing that “whisper” still lingering.
  • He is VERY interesting to listen to: he knows the history (heck, he MADE some of that history both good and bad) and his penchant to give an anecdote and attach it to a principle and apply it to a current event or issue has been good for him.  Why?  Obama can’t do any of it.

Once again, Conservatives are seeing that a non-Conservative candidate, Romney, may well get the nod.  Problem is, they / we have failed (again) to coalesce around a SINGLE candidate (because some of the major gaffes from them) as the standard bearer.   BECAUSE the debate importance this Cycle, they are now judging “the winner” by this new Debate standard (as opposed to the normal retail politics that HAS (emphasis on the past tense) been the norm here in NH.  And one cannot argue against the debates as the ratings have been VERY good – people ARE watching, listening, and judging.

I guess the takeaway is that they see Newt as the one that can beat Obama on his own field – debate rhetoric.  He already is mocking him by saying “Sure, bring TOTUS with you” – already shaping the battle space.  And with Romney’s mini-meltdown with Brett Beir on Fox the other night, the opening is finally there that Romney can be ruffled and someone can get under his skin.  And many see Newt that can make that a irritation into a wound.

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