Exercising the First by Doug Lambert
Got Imagination?
In the official report of the 9-11 Commission, one of the major concerns raised was that of a lack of imagination on the part of those whose job it is to think about such things. Page 346 of the report states, “Since the Pearl Harbor attack of 1941, the intelligence community has devoted generations of effort to understanding the problem of forestalling a surprise attack. Rigorous analytic methods were developed, focused in particular on the Soviet Union, and several leading practitioners within the intelligence community discussed them with us. These methods have been articulated in many ways, but almost all seem to have at least four elements in common: (1) think about how surprise attacks might be launched; (2) identify telltale indicators connected to the most dangerous possibilities; (3) where feasible, collect intelligence on these indicators; and (4) adopt defenses to deflect the most dangerous possibilities or at least trigger an earlier warning.” So what was the problem with this time tested system?.Section 11.1 of the report concludes: “The methods for detecting and then warning of surprise attack that the U.S. government had so painstakingly developed in the decades after Pearl Harbor did not fail; instead, they were not really tried. They were not employed to analyze the enemy that, as the twentieth century closed, was most likely to launch a surprise attack directly against the United States.” It seems that, after the end of the Cold War, everybody, including those who shouldn’t have, turned a blind eye to the dangers of the world. Nobody apparently saw anything but peace and love and happiness. America took a collective holiday from history, which ended on September 11th, 2001..In the famous ancient Chinese text, “The Art of Warfare”, Sun-Tzu writes, “The ultimate skill in taking up a strategic position is to have no form. If your position is formless, the most carefully concealed spies will not be able to get a look at it, and the wisest counselors will not be able to lay plans against it.” The classic military guidebook reminds the reader that, “Warfare is the art of deceit. Therefore, when able, seem to be unable; when ready, seem unready; when nearby, seem far away; and when far away, seem near. …Attack where he is not prepared; go by way of places where it would never occur to him you would go.” Again from The 9-11 Commission Report: “We believe the 9/11 attacks revealed four kinds of failures: in imagination, policy, capabilities, and management.” Imagination.
Meanwhile, the Dragon rises?
As the new world war lurches forward with all eyes focused on the Islamofascist world, communist China continues its military modernization. Why? Who are they "defending" against? As we live in a world more completely run and maintained by high technology, as does our military, one has to wonder about the latest action by the Chinese … Read more