NH Democrats’ Crack-Scientific Team Doesn’t Even Understand Exponents - Granite Grok

NH Democrats’ Crack-Scientific Team Doesn’t Even Understand Exponents


Note the “PhD”. I’m sure that’s there so everyone knows that Rep Jackie is much smarter and much more learned than the rest of us, and we should just “shut up and obey” if she tells us to do something.

The linked article’s lead author is former State Rep and current Executive Council candidate Mindi Messmer. Mindi, like Rep Jackie, wants everyone to know that she is a scientist, which makes her much, much smarter than you:

The article claims, as underscored in Rep Jackie’s tweet, that Coronavirus is growing “exponentially” in New Hampshire:

Although the state has identified only 101 positive cases as of March 23 and one death, the new case rate is following the same early exponential growth trajectory that has occurred in China, Italy, South Korea and other countries, as well as the U.S.

New Hampshire is entering a phase where the new case rate will double every two to four days.

In order to have a basis to make a claim like this you would have to test the ENTIRE population of New Hampshire on Day One and then again on Day Two or Day Four and see an exponential growth (doubling, tripling, etc) of the number of cases.

You can’t compare different sets of data … more specifically sample #1 on Day One and sample #2 on Day Two (or Four), which consists of sample #1 plus a bunch of new samples … and draw the conclusion that the rate of Coronavirus infection is growing exponentially.  That’s because the positives you obtained on Day Two from the new samples may have already been present on Day One, but you were unaware of them because you did not test for them.  You have detected additional cases on Day Two, but not necessarily new cases.

Additionally, what really matters is the mortality rate and the hospitalization rate. None of which are even mentioned by the “scientists.” Instead, the “scientists” warn that based on their secret “projections” our hospitals will be overwhelmed in three weeks.

Sorry, “scientists,’ but given that you don’t even understand what exponential growth means … I’ll pass on making public policy based on your super-secret “projections.”