In a down year confronted by a blue wave in New Hampshire, Republican Congressional candidate, Steve Negron got more voters in CD-2 to turn out and vote Republican than in any midterm election in the state this century. That’s a fact. And it matters as we head toward next November.
The stars are aligning for a sweeping Negron victory in 2020 that will send Democrat Ann “I’m afraid of Nancy Pelosi” Kuster packing.
- Democrats have pissed away their majority as the impeachment-obsessed do-nothing congress.
- Minorities are signaling a substantial shift toward the GOP ticket in 2020.
- Ann Kuster has admitted that Steve Negron can Flip her seat.
Why are Democrats nervous?
Without spending a dime on the 2020 contest, Mr. Negron has already convinced 117,990 NH-CD residents he’s a better bet for New Hampshire than Ann Kuster. And Kuster has done nothing to change their minds while doing plenty to persuade others who sat 2018 out that it was a mistake to let Kuster make her way back to DC.
And that scares them.
NH CD-2 Math Made Easy
Presidential elections in New Hampshire (in CD-2) turn out an average of 31% more Republican voters than Mid-terms. In 2016 when Trump ran that number rose to 33% and the way 2020 is shaping up, it could be higher because of Steve Negron.
Steve is walking into this race as a repeat candidate. NH CD 2 has not benefited from the name recognition of a repeat Republican candidate since 2010. Every race has been a new face, but voters already know Steve Negron’s name. So, with the same Trump bump as 2016 (33%) candidate Negron’s unique jumping-off point is now 157,000 votes.
That’s a great place to start because, in 2016, Jim Lawrence managed to get almost 159,000 without being a repeat candidate in a general election. Steve could easily blow that number away because Kuster is in danger of losing, and even she knows that.
We can’t guess at the dynamics of walk away Democrats, minorities shiting to the GOP or the loss of some Democrat student votes (because they don’t want to lose their license in their home state if they vote here). But those all play into the General election math. None of them work against building on his base of existing support. And they all favor growth.
I think Kuster and the Democrats know this, and they do not want to have to face him again in the current political climate. He represents a threat to power that Kuster has not yet had to face since winning the seat in Congress. A situation she’s love to see upended because it dramatically improves her odds of re-election.