There’s a story going around behind the scenes in NH CD-2. I’ve heard it shared in person and in writing. The claim is that the result of the 2018 Mid-term suggest Steve Negron might not be our best Republican candidate. But as Mid-Terms go, he is.
Steve received more Republican support in 2018 than any Republican in any Midterm since 2002.
Steve received 117,990 votes in November of 2018. The average from the three previous midterms is 103,189. The closest vote total in any mid-term since 2002 was in 2010 when 108, 610 Republican votes sent Charlie Bass back to Congress.
Steve beat the average by 15% in a Democratic wave election year.
|Mid Term||Candidate||Republican turnout|
Bad Year for Republicans
New Hampshire Democrats could not have done much better in 2018. Republicans lost their majorities at the state level in every part of the government, keeping only the governor’s office. People swarmed the polls to vote for Democrats. So, I disagree with any suggestion that the CD-2 loss was anything but more fallout from a highly motivated effort by Democrats to take the Majority in the US House – which they did.
As a percentage, it could have been better. But if you insist on judging Steve by this metric you better make sure to add, despite getting more Republicans to turn out and vote for him in any mid-term election since 2002.
Steve has already announced he is running. His name recognition is better this time around. And Ann Kuster is dancing with socialists during the State of the Union. She’s fundraising from the streets of DC, or at least that’s how it looks. Because she probably knows she’s got a problem.
She has to win in the House again because Kuster can’t shoe-horn her way into a Senate bid until at least 2026.
Steve is the first Republican to repeat a run at this seat since Charlie Bass in 2012. And Bass was as moderate a candidate as you can get from the GOP when he lost to Kuster.
And presidential year turnout is always higher.
Try to keep these facts straight.
If folks get behind Steve now and help him fundraise and grow on his mid-term base, he’s got as good a chance or better at taking that seat back than anyone.
So, just do it.
Note: Tweaked the title. Mr. Negron’s accomplishment was not clear enough.