If 19 Democrats decide their congressional districts are too fragile to support a yes vote on impeachment, and defected, those Articles would fail. Seats in districts Trump won in 2016 that they could lose if they join the Party and move the matter to the Senate for Trial.
There is also the question of momentum.
Democrats have lost it throughout the process. A Senate trial will expose everything they tried to hide in the House and probably more. The math suggests an acquittal after an ugly affair that will paint not Trump but Democrats as the ones who should be removed from office.
That sort of momentum swing would give your President a Yuge boost in an election year and give voters a mind to do just that. Remove Democrats from office.
There are four vacancies in the House, and former GOP Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan–who left the party over this–is expected to join the Democrats in the vote for impeachment, so that means Democrats would need 216 votes for impeachment to pass. As such, 19 total votes from Democrats against Articles of Impeachment–there is already at least one, probably two, with many more expected–could sink the vote.
There are 31 districts that Democrats currently represent that President Trump won in 2016, and another 20 or so that are considered battlegrounds with vulnerable incumbents
Personally, I agree with President Trump. Bring on the Senate trial. Politically it has almost no downside and bucket-loads of upside.
One more point. It is also an opportunity to expose what we see in that picture, courtesy of Breitbart. The politicians who are pushing hardest for impeachment. California, New York, and Massachusetts. State’s Hillary won in 2016. The same States which, if the Left found a way around the Electoral College (with National Popular Vote, for example), would erase the voices of millions of voters in smaller or less populous states, including New Hampshire.
