Trump seems to have been delivered an impeachment inquiry package under his Christmas tree. It’s likely to contain one of two things. Under option one, it contains objective evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors. That would mean a job change and a pay raise.
Under option two it contains a large jar of brown 25 from Uranus Corporation. The president would get to liberally apply it to the Democrats of his choice.
The facts of the inquiry will determine the contents of the package.
Two and a half years too late
The Tuesday Pelosi announcement was odd. There was the content of the announcement itself. The Speaker wove tales of a republic in peril, with charges with no established basis. The appearance is she has caved to the communist left that is her caucus. That was done before the release of a word of Trump’s conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart. Further, she characterized the “whistleblower” report without knowing what it says.
The nation is pretty tired of impeachment promises after three years of hyperbolic claims. Pelosi’s decision is an important gesture. But it’s little more than the promise of a broader, busier committee schedule. They will be beating the same tired drum they have banging since the inauguration.
Nancy saves Nancy
It does temporarily quiet the narrative that Pelosi is a desperate leader out of step with the party. In the short term, sniping from her communist freshmen about generational rifts will diminish. But is Pelosi really on board with the move? Why does it make sense that she has she suddenly changed? Has she really decided impeachment is a wise 2020 campaign strategy? Maybe the writing was on the wall that she’d better satisfy the masses or risk irrelevancy?
Whichever way she goes from here; she is now the face of impeachment. Her fate will rise and fall with impeachment’s plausibility. The early news is not good. Those seeking to find high crimes and misdemeanors in the phone call transcript have work to do. Corruption and outright illegality do not seem to exist in the transcript. It’s Going to be Interesting.
Whistleblowers
The whistleblower statutes have a specific intent. They are meant to provide cover for those who find malfeasance and seek to bring it to light. The protections are there to protect their career. Whistleblower protection does not extend to miscreants trolling the president of the United States.
The phone call is public
The Ukraine phone call memo is dead on arrival as a force toward Trump’s ruin. We probably will get to enjoy the spectacle of the leaker testifying before Congress. If the Democrats are as embarrassed as seems likely, there may be very few friendly faces in those hearings. The Robert Mueller testimony may look positively coherent by comparison.
Where this story ends up going may change from where it seems likely to go today. There will be House committees trying to avoid stepping all over each other. The media will amplify and spin every development. This may or more likely may not be of benefit to the Democratic Party. Either way, the party has telegraphed its doubts about any of its candidates’ ability to beat Trump next year.
Impeachment R.I.P.
That 2020 field will spend the coming weeks talking about little else. Their topics would otherwise be their healthcare plans, the green new deal, and their environmental forecasts. Now there will be no stories other than Ukrainegate. If the story collapses under the weight of its own silliness, Democrats may look around and wonder if there is an exit strategy from the hole they have dug. There are a large number of people in red hats with shovels ready to fill in the hole. It’s Going to be Interesting, get your popcorn because it’s a long show.