The Democrat “Sweep” of New Hampshire looks impressive. But when you run the numbers, especially on the State Senate side, it’s quite fragile. To show you how precarious the win, we only need to look at a few State Senate Races.
A difference of 275 votes (total) between just two races (Avard and Gannon) produces a 12-12 tie in the upper chamber.
Another 1047 votes (in Dave Boutin’s race) and it’s a 13-11 Republican majority. Yes, a swing of 1,322 votes and the Republicans keep the majority in the New Hampshire Senate.
Related: How to Lose Elections
A total of 2,748 votes makes it a 14-10 Republican Senate. Add 1,261 votes to that, and we have a 15-9 Republican majority.
The difference between the current Democrat majority and a 15-9 Republican majority is only 3,739 votes spread across four races. That’s it.
But to be fair, on the flip side, the Democrats missed having a State Senate supermajority by only 1,396 votes.
Over in the New Hampshire House
On the House side, 35 close races with a bit more Republican turn out would have resulted in a Republican Majority of 201 seats.
Seventeen of those races were decided by 100 votes or fewer. None of the thirty-five were decided by more than 200 votes.
Elections matter. Turnout matters. Issues matter. And yes, messaging and awareness matter. Any number of local races could have benefitted from a broader application of statewide messaging.
Had the governor’s team, which did plenty on the ground for local candidates, used it’s messaging against Molly Kelly to include all the Democrats down the ticket, we could have should have would have might have.
We didn’t get that, and now we’ve got this. Democrats run everything but the Governor’s office.
When RINO’s Cry
A quick note to the Moderate Republicans who keep whining about principled Republicans calling them out for lack of principle. No matter who cost us seats or majorities, one thing is undeniable.
The Democrat majority will push their platform. Their priorities. Their “principles.” Their leadership will lead that charge and ram them through, as many as they can, as fast as they can. The Democrats will message the crap out of every important bill. The state party will provide significant cover. In some cases, they will get help from outside the state. When needed they will work to find votes to override vetoes from Republicans even if it means painting them with coarse language and unflattering slurs.
When Republicans had majorities and a Republican governor, they did not do enough of this. Some would say little to none. And instead of focusing on promoting platform issues (while in the majority) moderates and leadership muddied up the water by sponsoring and cosponsoring priorities that were more important to Democrats.
We wasted valuable time as a majority that we have now lost.
I spent plenty of my time supporting Republican platform issues and legislation that represented our parties values. I spent more time opposing legislation backed by Republicans that advanced Democrat party priorities. If you’d like to me to stop pointing that out stop doing it.
While we have much to learn, I do have a few suggestions to get us started.
- Be relentless in advancing Republican priorities before anything else.
- Support party leaders who will are vocal on Republican platform issues and twice as vocal defending them from Democrat attacks.
- Use your elected office to fire up your town and county committees.
- Be a frequent letter writer in support of platform issues in your local paper.
- Reach out and find air cover from bloggers (like us) and people and organizations who can provide back up, maybe even support to whip the legislature.
- Mirror the Democrat energy in supporting and defending Republican Platform issues.
- Stop doing the Democrats policy work for them. They will not thank you for it when it matters. In public or during an election.
We saw a lot of NH Republicans helping NH Democrats over the past few years and what did the Democrats do? They ignored all that heavy lifting to advance their agenda and treated you like the enemy because you are their enemy even when you help them.
Stop helping them.
Republicans advancing Democrat priorities has never done anything but get us more Democrats in the next election. Bathroom Bills. Anti-free speech bills. Crony bailout Bills. Stop helping them win.
We were only 1,322 votes in 4 State Senate races away from an opportunity to mirror the national results. That moment has passed. It is now time to practice for when Republicans are in the majority again.
Be relentless. The government can only grow at the expense of individual rights, liberties, and incomes. Make the case. Every bill. You trust people. They only trust the government. Carry it like a sword and shield. And if, by chance, you find yourself in the majority again do not put them down. Ever.