What is a Preference Cascade? A great definition after the jump – but think how quickly the TEA Party movement started three years ago.
Part 1: I generally do my gun and ammo purchasing at one of two gun shops (unpaid plugs: Belmont Firearms on Rte 106 in Belmont, NH (and I have a membership at their indoor range) and Skip’s Gun & Sport Shop in Bristol, NH). Well, TMEW and I had stopped practice shooting for a while and one day we both looked at each other and said “Hey, we haven’t gone to the range in a long time….” and we’ve restarted. Looking at what I had on hand, I went up to Skip’s to get some ammo for the Walther P22 that TMEW uses a lot and for which BF didn’t have in stock (yes, I could have ordered it, but I hadn’t been up to Skip’s for a long time and wanted to see the results of their expansion). Bought some other ammo types, a new range bag for TMEW, a handgun rack for the safe, and a few other things that go boom!
Anyways, I ended talking with the clerk at the counter, and a comment was made (seeing the cases of 9mm and .380 I put on the counter) that people were not really buying ammo by the box (20, 25, 50, et al) anymore but rather , more and more, by the case (e.g., 500 or 1,000 rounds at a whack). And it isn’t by just single people coming in but groups of people, or a single person buying for a whole gaggle of folks. She looked at me and said words to the effect “People are getting nervous and anxious – people are not sure what is about to happen next.”
We talked about the current affairs of finance, politics and elections, political philosophies between the Rs and Ds (growing wider every day as the Dems shift ever Leftward forward, in toto, away from Constitutional values), geo-political problems in Europe and the Middle East. So many things, so many tripwires going on at the same time. I remarked that I could not remember so many areas turning up all at the same time – a Perfect Storm. Channeling Rahm Emmanual, I wondered if a Crisis was coming up that He would refuses to waste….the clerk woefully smiled but her shoulders sank.
Katrina came up in the conversation and she was very dismissive of the signs of the Dependency Society, especially as Katrina was a well known disaster coming for days. I can never forget the picture of the young black knee deep in water, arms wide open, with a caption of “Save me”. Can’t find it now, but the one posted serves the purpose. Contrast that with what happened a couple of years later – the massive floods in the upper Midwest. The response was there was, comparatively, “don’t need your help except for more sand bags”
We talked about that for a while – who was willing to see what the near term future holds, what kind of character it takes to positively act (or passively wait for others), and who was willing to be self-responsible for their own future. And not, given the store I was in, what kinds of other stuff was going on and what she was hearing…a lot of little groups are starting to form up (“You can’t do this on your own”). De Tocquville, if I can take him slightly out of context, would be smiling.
Looking at the purchase, the remark was “you’d be prepared” – a smile, and then cashed out. And remembered about a post that I keep wanting to comment on…
Here’s the definition I promised:
What’s a “preference cascade?” It’s people who believed they were alone in their beliefs who suddenly find out that they are part of a much larger group. It’s human nature to not want to be an oddball. It’s human nature not to want to be a one-man revolution. It’s when you find out that most of the people around you share your views that revolutions are made.
It’s perfectly illustrated by a post by Glenn Reynolds explaining how revolutions seem to appear out of nowhere.
Are people getting to the point of thinking “We ARE at the cusp of a point-of-no-return”? Is that why the overall mood is seemingly going sour in hurry via lots of people realizing “Oh crap!”. Do they now fear the future that Obama promises? Or do they fear the future that Obama’s policies are bringing now? Will He do to many what that filmmaker is now suffering through? Or an economic crash from failed economic policies? Or something else?
