Chuck Morse supporters got some bad news this week. The latest Granite State poll is out, and Ms. Ayotte has a commanding lead among self-identified Republican primary voters. Forty-four points.
The good news for the Morsels is that these affairs are low turnout, and if you can GOTV with conviction, there’s a very real opportunity to make fools out of the pollsters. The bad news is that nothing will change Ayotte’s name recognition. She’s also got another advantage. Several solid conservatives with whom I’ve spoken have suggested that Chuck, nice guy or not, better bet ideologically than Kelly or not (at least on paper), has no backbone. They are concerned he’ll cave to outside forces. They are also willing to take a shot that a Governor Ayotte will differ from a Senator Ayotte. That DC is a lot different than NH, and being this close to home will get us different (presumably better) results. And, finally, that her name recognition can and will keep Democrats from taking the Governor’s race.
I agree that we need to keep Democrats out of the governor’s chair, and Ayotte’s name recognition, absent all other things, is likely to carry the day in November in a way Morse never could. However, the rest is speculative. Ayotte was a fine US Senator for the first two years in DC until she fell in with McCain and Graham. That suggests that she is susceptible to influence peddling. But the poll hints that she’s got other advantages in this race. More locked-in voters,and better favorability.
The ‘Grok has a love-hate relationship with Sen. Morse but no more or less than Ayotte. They have both cast disappointing votes. There are clear lines between them and the rhetorical five families. Neither will act independently of the murky backroom forces that drive state politics from the center-right. And the other no-name candidates would hand the seat to the Dems.
September 10th is coming. I think Ayotte walks away with the primary. I’ve felt that since the day she announced. That’s not an endorsement or a knock on Chuck or his team; it is an opinion based on nearly two decades of observation. Her name recognition is a mountain too big for Chuck to climb, and the Sununu endorsement made that hill higher because most voters don’t have the depth of inside knowledge or the desire to look further or dig deeper. Politics to them is like being asked to wipe someone else’s ass.
Speaking of asses, Donkey Warmington and Donkey Craig are in a close fight, with Joyce ahead by a nose. Has anyone asked if she got rid of the mole because it precluded her from running for higher office? Just a guess. I wonder if that surgery could be written off as a campaign expense. And before the outrage harpies started squawking, I never made fun of it when she had it, so clamp your beaks.
Reminder: Content about candidates or by candidates is not an endorsement by GraniteGrok.com or its authors.
