On election night Republicans were all doom and gloom as they watched their hopes of a red tsunami crash. And while the historic precedent existed for such a victory and every poll had predicated it, looking back, the wreckage isn’t as devastating as Republicans perceived it.
Republicans likely took the House, and gained in the senate. Red states got redder. Blue states got bluer. This is likely due to a shifting of the electorate caused by Covid policies. Historic swing states like NH did not experience a loss or a gain, they simply reflected 2020. We can see this clearly in NH: federal races went Democrat, all state level bodies went Republican, just like in 2020.
Why were the polls so wrong? I was on the ground knocking doors in 2020 and in 2022 and I felt the red wave coming. Swing voters in 2020 shut the door in my face because they hated Trump, but the same doors in 2022 said they were voting straight Republican. So what happened?
Republicans campaigned with an archaic playbook. We were out spent and out maneuvered at every turn. Looking back, we were so cute coming up with our little messages for our mailers targeted at likely swing voters, while Democrats operated on an entirely new level that we are only just beginning to understand. In a general election, Republicans target those registered voters who typically vote, but who swing back and forth. We send them our message through mailers, door knockers, and ads. And that worked. Those likely swing voters, did break for us as predicted through the polls. And for those people, the economy was the number one issue, just as the polls predicted.
But you can’t poll people who have never voted before or who are unlikely to vote. Somehow the Democrats found an entirely new set of voters and their singular message was: Republicans want to ban abortion. They want to take away your freedom and control you. And they heard that message relentlessly without any counter narrative. Gen Z showed up to vote and Republicans didn’t even know where to find them. This is a generation who 1. Don’t have bills to pay yet 2. Were raised to believe that abortion is equal to contraception and 3. Who only care about social issues. Democrats found them through sophisticated algorithms, social media influencers, and other technological means I don’t understand. Considering the Democrats essentially control Big Tech, it is no wonder we lost a game we didn’t know existed.
In NH, same day registrations were incredibly high. My personal experience at the polls in Merrimack is by 3 pm, the same day registration line was out the door, filled with young people, most of whom had moved into recently built apartments in town. And they were angry, telling us we had banned abortion and calling us liars when we tried to correct them. If I were to guess, I would say that Democrats probably knocked the doors of these new apartments a few weeks ago, fed them their message, and then knocked again throughout election day to get them to the polls. These voters aren’t Democrats or Republicans- they are low information voters who are easily manipulated and deceived. But Republicans ignored them, so we never had a chance.
Campaigns take money. The Dobbs decisions was damaging for Republicans in many ways, but mostly because it became the fundraising gift that kept giving. On the Republican side, Trump and DeSantis are the fundraising work horses. DeSantis used his money to support and lead his entire state to a decisive victory, while Trump horded his treasure chest. McConnell and McCarthy also had plenty of money, but instead of using it to build their teams, they strategically used it for their own power. That left Don Bolduc with 3 million to spend vs Maggie Hassan who had 38 million to spend. Everything else was downstream of that race.
At the state level, we ended up with the same makeup as 2020, yet we lost 10 seats in the House. I attribute this to Republican infighting. It’s no secret to the political junkies of NH that I vocally fought for state of emergency reform and the Governor and I butted heads over this issue, one that the electorate doesn’t even care about, but it certainly made me an enemy. A PAC supported by Sununu attacked me in the primary and supported my Republican opponent in the general election. The Governor also interfered in Gunstock, where both sides dug their heels in so hard, that we lost Republican seats in Belknap County where we had held every seat in 2020. These are just a few examples of numerous infighting issues that occurred throughout the state that cost us seats. Let’s contrast the NH with FL, where Governor DeSantis often has disagreements with his Legislature over policy, but when it came to this election, he equally supported the entire team to victory.
Politics is downstream of culture, and culture is decidedly pro-choice. Until the hearts and minds are changed, abortion as a political policy is a liability. We were winning on the bodily autonomy issue with vaccine mandates until Dobbs, and then we ran scared from the entire issue instead of going hard in, branding ourselves as truly being the party of “my body my choice”.
Trump lost NH in 2016 and 2020, but we continue to run candidates at the federal level who compete for being the most MAGA. Maybe MAGA doesn’t work in NH. MAGA doesn’t equal conservative. In fact, it doesn’t translate to candidates as being anything other than supportive of Trump, who frankly, has become a distraction and an impediment in NH.
I don’t have all the answers, and I’m sure my analysis will anger parts of the party, but if we as a Republican party don’t take a cold, hard look in the mirror and throw out the antiquated playbook, a red wave will never come again.
