August’s big drop in COVID-19 numbers brings N.H. back to spring levels for top three metrics - Granite Grok

August’s big drop in COVID-19 numbers brings N.H. back to spring levels for top three metrics

Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy Logo

August is on pace to record New Hampshire’s lowest numbers of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths since May. The dramatic, summer-long decline in all three metrics occurred as the state reopened its economy. But it has been hard to see by looking only at the daily reporting.

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Media reports focused on daily snapshots or cumulative totals have masked the decline. Looking at the monthly trends shows just how sharply and quickly the state’s numbers have fallen.

As students return to school and restaurants expand indoor seating, New Hampshire has fewer than 1,000 infections for the month, fewer than two dozen hospitalizations, and fewer than 20 deaths. August is on pace to record the state’s lowest numbers in all categories since May.

N.H.-COVID-19-infections-by-month.001-705x529The state does not break down its numbers by month, so the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy created month-by-month graphs to see how infections, hospitalizations and deaths were trending over the summer.

We found that new infections peaked in May with 2,505. New hospitalizations peaked in April, with 213. New deaths peaked in May, with 176.

Since May, the state has experienced a substantial decline in all three metrics.

As of August 27, the last day for which the state has released numbers, New Hampshire has experienced a 76% reduction in infections and a 91% reduction in deaths since their peaks in May. Since April’s peak in hospitalizations, the state has experienced a 91% reduction.

The drop since July has also been sharp. The state had 128 hospitalizations in July. It has recorded only 20 so far in August. The state had 44 deaths in July. It has recorded only 16 in so far in August.

With a few days left in the month, the state appears likely see its deaths cut by more than half from the previous month and its hospitalizations cut by 84%.

N.H.-COVID-19-deaths-by-month.001

The Sununu administration has acted cautiously by lifting economic restrictions in a slow and methodical manner, which may have helped to slow the spread of the virus during the reopening period.

The numbers show that no additional restrictions are warranted at this time and that remaining restrictions should be reconsidered.

It’s worth noting that as the governor began lifting economic constraints in May, many predicted a huge summer surge in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Instead, the opposite happened. As the economy reopened, infections, hospitalizations and deaths all fell.

As we pointed out last week, the state still has not experienced a single outbreak at a day care center, restaurant or shopping mall. As of August 27, only nine people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in the state.

That is not to say that the virus has disappeared or is not a concern for some people. Just over one fifth (21%) of infections have been traced to community transmission, according to the state, showing that there is some risk of catching it out in public.

It’s possible that Motorcycle Week changes the data or that cold weather brings a resurgence in infections and fatalities. But a realistic look at the data currently available shows cause for optimism and additional reopening measures, not pessimism and further restraints on economic and personal activity.

 

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