Well it turns out there are academics who believe in consistent logic. At least one group of mathematicians has come out publicly. They are saying using your models and your data your decision making is flawed. Come let us reason together.
Who is that guy?
Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel says it was a terrible miscalculation to insist on the lockdowns shutting down the global economy. Major Gen. (Res) Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy and a B.Sc. in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University.
The professor is the Chairman of the Israeli Space Agency, the National Council for Research and Development, and is the head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University. Professor Ben-Israel has worked with his colleagues, Prof. Ziegler of the Technion and Ronnie Yefarah. The team has done an examination of the outbreaks of coronavirus country by country. They have made some interesting observations.
The work shows
This professor says that mathematical models show the outbreak peaks at 40 days. The outbreak peters out by 70 days. It doesn’t seem to matter if lockdown orders are in place or not. He describes the research.
Professor Ben-Israel says it shows the number of new cases of the virus peaks after about 40 days. It then declines to near zero after 70 days. This occurs no matter where in the world it strikes. It occurs no matter whether countries shut down their economies or not.
He supports social distancing. In his judgment the widespread shuttering of economies is a demonstrable error. In Israel’s case, he notes, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that kills one or two a day is a radical error unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charges. Source: The Times Of Israel
Cue the hand wringing on the left. “If it saves just one life!” Everyone should understand this is ignoring the millions of people harmed. The majority are facing job loss, hardship, and other forms of suffering. The Professor examined the outbreak of coronavirus in Israel, which has imposed strict lockdowns, as well as the outbreaks in other countries.
The work includes
“The incidence of patients was greater by the day. This was during the first four weeks after the epidemic was discovered in Israel. As of the sixth week, the increase in the number of patients has been moderate, peaking in the sixth week at 700 patients per day. Since then it has been declining, and today there are only 300 new patients. In two weeks it will reach zero and there will be no more new patients,” Prof. Ben-Israel said.
“This is how it is all over the world. Both in countries where they have taken closure steps like Italy and in countries that have not had closures like Taiwan or Singapore. In such and such countries there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and immediately thereafter moderation until during the eighth week it disappears.”…
”This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response. The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline,” he said, adding that his observations are based entirely on past data without attempting to guess what will happen in the future.
“It’s clear to us how the epidemic is starting and what is causing the increase. What is causing the moderation is unclear. Therefore, I propose that we end the closures immediately after the current week. We will start increasing the workforce from 15 percent to fifty percent and in two weeks we will reach 100 percent.” Source: Israel National News
Using the mathematical models to set the policy
It should be noted that Professor Ben-Israel is a mathematician. He is not an expert in public health. Public health experts have relied on models as the basis for public policy. Also, models are don’t account for anything other than the information that is put into them. They don’t take into consideration changes in variables such as changes to behavior unless those are specifically calculated in.
Jordan Schachtel ✔@JordanSchachtel · Apr 13, 2020, Replying to @JordanSchachtel
Some context: Israel’s unemployment numbers (>25%) continue to skyrocket. They are in complete lockdown. They have 1 of the most sophisticated and invasive tracking programs available. They’ve logged just over 100 deaths. Vast majority are ppl w preexisting conditions & elderly.
Jordan Schachtel ✔@JordanSchachtel
The prof quoted in the article is a world-renowned mathematician who is recognized for having built weapons systems that rely on extremely precise math models. If there’s 1 person u should listen to about modeling, it’s him. Modeling for him is a life or death, win or lose matter.
Not everyone agrees
Professor Ben-Israel’s model has been criticized. Prof Gabi Barbash, Israel’s former Health Ministry Director-General takes umbrage. He said that Ben-Israel’s analysis is incorrect. The death toll would have been much higher if lockdowns hadn’t been imposed… He adds, “I strongly urge that we not let mathematicians — who know nothing about biology — determine when we lift the lockdown.”
Professor Ben-Israel disagrees. He says that the data from countries that didn’t impose strict lockdowns actually proves his point.
But Ben Israel says the figures — notably from countries, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Sweden, which did not take such radical measures to shutter their economies — prove his point.
High death tolls in some countries are a factor of their healthcare systems being overwhelmed, he acknowledges. When Barbash cites New York as one example of an overwhelmed healthcare system. He argues only radical measures are preventing worse crises worldwide. Ben Israel says the latest indications from New York are that the strain on the healthcare system is starting to recede — in line with his statistics that show daily new cases figures peaking and starting to fall after 40 days. Source: The Times Of Israel
What does this all mean?
Professor Ben-Israel does say that social distancing and other precautions should continue to be taken. But keeping healthy people home doesn’t seem to make sense. He urges that “we take all the hygienic steps. Those would include wearing masks and keeping our distance from person to person.
It would also include banning crowds because it does not cost the economy. What bothers me is the damage to the economy. We are paying NIS 100 billion a month because of this closure. This also has implications for health. We will pay with more human lives with our health system in the current state.”
He’s right about the impact on the health system. Moreover, not just in places where healthcare is government-run. In some jurisdictions, elective and non-urgent procedures are being delayed. This is necessary when the system is stretched thin. That can happen due to the number of coronavirus patients requiring hospitalization.
We don’t know what the long-term cost of those decisions will be. Neither do we know the number of lives lost because of delays in cancer treatment or organ transplants. That also doesn’t include the well-studied link between job loss and an increase in substance abuse. We cannot live locked up forever. That’s just not an option. If the math says there is no difference in virus spread with or without lockdowns: What are we doing setting policy based on math we do not understand or we misapply? Governor Sununu, LET MY PEOPLE GO!!!