It was big news when a Democrat Socialist won a seat in a Republican-leaning State House district in Hooksett, New Hampshire. So, where are the news reports on this? A Democrat State House district in Pennsylvania that went +9 for Hillary in 2016 just flipped to the GOP.
Related: A Quick Post-Mortem on the Hooksett Special-Election
Local media and Democratic Party officials had said that the district should have been an easy pickoff because of the political trend, a Democratic registered voter edge, and the perceived backlash in the Philadelphia suburbs against Trump.
But, in the end, the GOP appears to have held the seat and by a wide margin, though the results have not been certified.
Bucks County spokesman Larry King told WHYY that Republican K.C. Tomlinson beat Democrat Harold Hayes 3,826 to 3,343.
The GOP also won two other special state House elections.
Pennsylvania is one of those must-win states for Democrats. Lots of delegates, but lots of problems. Everyone including the presumptive nominee (lunchbox Joe Biden) is swearing on a stack of Communist Manifesto’s that they are going to end the oil and gas industry. No more fracking.
Pennsylvania may have a lot of Democrats in it, but they also have long memories. The left killed of coal, steel, and now they want to end their latest economic salvation, fracking. And yes, there are shale deposits under Bucks County, and the debate about the value in mining that is ongoing, so maybe it’s not about energy at all.
If that’s true, why did a statehouse race nestled inside a D+31 congressional district flip to Republican?
“This is a favorable district for a Democrat. Voters in HD18 chose Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential election (Clinton: 52.85%; Trump: 44.12%). Voters chose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in the 2012 election (Obama: 57.88%; Romney: 40.91%). Democratic Governor Tom Wolf won this district in 2014 (Wolf: 58.18%; Corbett: 41.82%), and improved on that performance in the 2018 gubernatorial election (Wolf: 61.90%; Wagner: 38.10%). That same year, Democratic Senator Bob Casey easily carried HD18 (Casey: 59.75%; Barletta: 40.25%). HD18 is fully nested within Pennsylvania Congressional District 1, which has a Cook Political Voting Index of D+31.”
It’s quite a mystery to everyone on both sides of the aisle. But something changed. So, don’t be surprised if a few more Hillary+ districts in the Keystone state flip come November. But don’t count on it either.
You need to turn out to vote to win and to turn out with at least a bonus 10% (or more) to keep the vote-stealing out-of-staters from choosing your elected officials. At least in New Hampshire. And everywhere else there be Democrats.
But the flip in PA is encouraging. And it means something to Democrats that they’d rather not talk about which is why they are keeping this one quiet.
K.C Tomlinson | Washington Examiner
