Math is hard. - Granite Grok

Math is hard.

CDC Kung Flu

I’m not a doctor. I’m not a biologist. I’m not a mathematician.  I don’t even PLAY any of those on social media. I am, however, well-read and an admitted, congenital skeptic.

So, I have developed this working hypothesis about the current plague that states that we – and by “we” I mean all of us dirt people – are either all going to die like aborted children born alive being kept comfortable by our betters til the end OR, what is happening before our eyes is the best, slickest, most world-altering exercise ever of political expediency to achieve an end never believed possible.

In the case of the former, my hypothesis states that the gummint is easing the pain of our collective death-rattle by offering placebos in the form of fast cash and choruses of Kumbaya knowing full well that the end is nigh and we’ll never know what hit us. In the case of the latter, like Rahm Emanuel said in an interview with Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2008:

“You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before…”

..meaning by frightening people figuratively to death, destroying the economy and making who’s left dependent on gummint, politicians of ANY stripe can finally take full control of the levers of power with firing hardly any shots.

Increasingly, I am leaning toward the latter.

On one of my favorite blog sites – Raconteur Report – the author published commentary on another writer’s questions regarding the data being tossed around about the current plague and why they are likely useless. The writer states:

We get stats on the Media about “number of cases” of CororinaVirus, and we get stats for “number of deaths” (those I question…not that they are dead, but that they died from Covid-19…often they are already old, weak or otherwise compromised and have other complicating factors).

But one bit of data I don’t ever see is the number of people needing little or no care, or some level of hospitalization because of the effects of Covid-19. In fact, if you look, the data is pretty much only aimed at “deaths” and not much else.

Raconteur responds at some length but the short version is this:

1) You are correct that such specific data would be useful.
2) You will never get it.
3) Because the CDC buggered up the test kits months ago, and we don’t have enough. Anywhere.
3a) L.A. County just told doctors there yesterday not to test anyone (because they’re out of kits) unless the results would change their treatment of the patient. (Which is no one, because you treat the severity of symptoms, not the presence or absence of the virus. If someone is sick enough to admit, you admit them. If not, you send them home and tell them to self quarantine.)
3b) This ensures we’ll never know how many people have Kung Flu, and we’ll never know how many people who have Kung Flu we’ve launched back into the community, to re-infect 2, 4, 8, or 48 of their fellows.
4) Things like this are why all stats on this outbreak will be pure bullsh*t, going forward. Nothing published will be reliable, because lack of rapid and accurate testing for all suspected cases ensures we never know how widespread it is, how bad it is, and what percentage of people are uninfected, asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, really sick, or dead, because you erased most of that pie chart from the start.

(V + W + X + Y + Z = Q)
Z = 340
Q = 330M
Solve for all other variables.
In mathematical terms, we have made it impossible to solve for X, when we have put V, W, and Y beyond knowing. Ever.

We know as of today that 340 people have died.
But we don’t know whether that’s out of 27K cases, or 270K cases, or 2.7M cases, or 330M cases.
So we know how bad it is for 340 people.
But we can never know how bad it’s going to be for 330M people.

The problem with knowing the numbers isn’t that we’d know how terrible this outbreak isn’t.
The problem is that we’d know how bad the government is.

Read the whole thing………