Update II:
WMUR:
Guinta – A Bestani – A Ashooh – C Mahoney – FAIL
I disagree with #2 and #3, but vindicated on #1 & last place.
Now the question is: will anyone drop out and throw support to another? Possible Predictions:
Rich, to Frank (one gentleman to another)
Bob, to Sean (little birdies tweeting in my ear). However, being buoyed by WMUR’s rating, they may have been merely "tweets in the wind…"
Sean, if he does – either just goes home, or to Bob
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Update:
- Rich – a gentleman to the end.
- Bob – still on the international finance angle
- Frank – finally "talked short" and "brought it" and got the last word in with the battle with Sean "Binnie of NH CD-1" Mahoney on ethics and attack ads.
- Sean – kept away from TEA Party, put on the small biz mantle instead. Tried to ladder over Frank – missed a few rungs along the way (and all that money spent on the ladder too – so sad…)
Decision: Frank and Rich tie at first blush – may have to review tape….
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Who knows what to expect? The most recent polling that has been done by Cross Target for AFP is now coming under scrutiny by our own hardworking Steve (with a few tips besides!) because of its incestuous relationships between political operatives. Knowing the fingerprints that are being left behind by Patrick Hynes, it will be interesting to see if Mahoney "Bill Binnie of NH CD-1" Millions can buy a debate!
I’ll be watching the debate and tweeting my thoughts (or watch the Twitter widget on the Rightside Sidebar on GraniteGrok) – there was NO way that WMUR would let us in to live stream from the ‘Grok. Participants will be:
- Rich Ashooh – I have not gotten the chance to get to know Rich well, but he has impressed me as the Gentleman of the crew. Thoughtful and reserved (but not aloof), he quietly has made his way through the campaign morass with style. Pretty much aligned with the others on the issues (except, perhaps with the ‘Grok taking a bit of an issue on the ONE campaign), he has been middle of the pack (although after the Seacoast Republican Womens Debate, I thought, along with several other activists, that he might have won that evening).
Question: Can he light a fire during the debate and break out of the Gentleman mode? People like polite, but I think in order to win, he’s got to show some vim and vinegar – can he?
- Bob Bestani – the technocrat of the race having spent his career in international finance all over the world. He’s a very bright guy with plenty of intellectual horsepower (and a nice guy as well – we’ve talked a bunch of times both on MTNP and in person) and approaches things from a very intellectual standpoint. Problem for him is the same – he approaches things from an internationalist / financial view – sometimes a bit too high level?
Question: running behind in the polls, can he shed the intellectual image and make contact with Joe and Jane Everybody and convince folks that he is them?
- Frank Guinta – Right now, he’s the front runner. He’s also the only one that has been proven in state wide / major office and has been endorsed by us at Granitegrok. A friend to the TEA Party and 9-12 movement, he has shown a commitment to returning Congress to Constitutional limits and philosophy (and am betting he’d be part of that Congressional caucus striving to do so)
Question: he has a penchant to "talk long"; can he "talk short" and pithily for this debate?
- Sean Mahoney – nicknamed "Bill Binnie of NH CD-1", he has earned this monniker by ploughing a million buckaroonies (or thereabouts) into his campaign. He may have to drop a whole lot more as he announced WAY late (for this kind of cycle) in his intention to take this prize. While he has one of the top online (and high priced) strategists on his team, Pat Hynes (a political operative in the truest stereotypical definition of the phrase), it remains to be seen if his pretty boy looks and demeanor tonight can make up for a lack luster ground game and capability. Money can’t buy you love (just ask Binnie, his seemingly mentor for writing checks this cycle), but will it buy votes, especially if he tanks tonite?
Question: Consider this: can he successfully paint himself as both a political outsider (even as having been the NH RNC Committeeman – the ultimate Party INsider) AND a "Party fighter"? And is he, once again, going to try to be the (faux) TEA Partier?
In the mean time, there will be two faces absent from the debate tonite: Peter Bearse and Rick Parent, and that’s a shame. While Rick is a recent addition to the race (relatively speaking), Peter has put in the time and the effort has shown up at all of the events – and has made a couple of good points at some of those events.
While it is WMUR’s event and they certainly can decide to invite who they wish to as it is their money, the ‘Grok thinks they should have been included. We thank both gentlemen for taking their civic duty seriously.
