Doesn’t wind power seem to be the path to a carbon-free energy future? It’s clean and abundant. Larger turbines have enhanced wind’s power-generating capacity. It’s all good right? Well maybe not so much. Wind energy has grown thanks largely to billions of dollars of production tax credits. That’s a tax , regulatory, and affordability issue.
Availability…
The amount of wind generated energy has tripled in the past 10 years. It now amounts to about 97,000 megawatts from over 40 states. About half of the total generating capacity is located in Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma, California and Kansas. Wind patterns vary considerably across the country. They change seasonally which is a nice way to say wind is not reliable. Wind’s contribution to the grid represents just 8% of power production nationwide.
Cost…
The wind subsidy is about 2.3 cents per kilowatt hour. There may be a phase out of those credits. Putting them in place was an error. But even without such generous subsidies, wind energy will not make much of a dent in power production. It will do little for carbon mitigation for at least a decade.
The nation’s only operational offshore wind turbines are located in coastal waters near Rhode Island. The Block Island Wind Farm went into operation in late 2016. It cost $2 billion plus $16.7 million to compensate companies for lost access to fishing grounds. Operating and maintenance expenses for wind farms currently add about $48,000 per megawatt generated.
Do the math. That’s $48/kilowatt. How’s that for a shot in the electric bill? Is Rhode Island anywhere near here? Does it share in your power grid, rate structure? This is what passes for planning and Massachusetts too is preparing to obtain power from more wind turbines off its coast. The cost will be borne by households and businesses. Want to place a wager on whether Mass and Rhode Island share all that cost?
Moving forward…
Maybe the cost of wind farms will fall as more are built. Perhaps ways will be found to reduce the dangers wind turbines pose to birds, bats, and other wildlife. Maybe the cost comparisons to other sources will change. In the meantime we need to be realistic about the limitations of power generated by renewables. In order to remain economically competitive we need to get serious about reducing energy costs. We have to eat regardless of the source of our electricity.
Another alternative…
A more practical environmental approach is to expand the use of the combined-cycle natural gas plants. The shale revolution has made that possible. It greatly strengthens economic incentives to substitute natural gas for coal. Data analytics and complex algorithms make it easier to find natural gas and boost the productivity of shale fields.
Renewables at the moment offer more promise than reality. Even with lavish subsidies, wind and solar power together account for about 10% of the nation’s electricity. In contrast, gas provides nearly 35%. It is indispensable for generating backup power on days when the wind doesn’t blow, or the sun doesn’t shine.
Watt the future holds…
Because of rising electricity demands and the retirement of coal and nuclear plants, many states are planning for more wind-powered electricity production. Under present regulatory regimes, most of the capital and operating costs of new wind farms will end up being added to consumers’ utility bills. In some states “the stranded costs” of mothballed power plants are included too.
Unsubsidized wind energy simply is too expensive to become a major source of electricity. The inability of grid operators to manage the variations in power from wind and solar energy is creating headaches and raising costs. New Hampshire needs a reliable supply of affordable electricity. But it is placing too much weight on wind and solar systems. Not enough weight is on conventional power plants.
Conclusion:
The result will be far too little electricity available. Compounding undersupply will be excessive cost. The current course comes with potentially grievous economic consequences. Bye, bye New Hampshire advantage. Did you know your legislature upped the required amount of renewable electricity you’ll be subsidizing by a factor of nearly 10 this session? It’s something to look forward to.