I’ve heard Chris Ager say many times, ad nauseam, that ANY seat can be won. The reason I used the words “ad nauseam” is that I’ve heard it the most times inside the Nashua Marriott ballroom, usually at the NRCC podium during a routine “better luck next time” consolation speech in November. In even-numbered years, it would be after all or almost all 27 Rep. seats stayed blue. In odd-numbered years, it would be after a routine city hall & school board train wreck.
And 2023 was a real kick in the head from Chris because it was a mayoral year, and Mike Soucy lost by about 600 votes while Jay Ruais flipped his Corner Office. I started tuning Chris out whenever he headed down that path at the mic because I think some blue districts in various bodies are so gerrymandered or just inherently trashy that they are truly lost at sea.
Senate District 11, which includes Chris’s blue town of Amherst, is not one of them. In fact, JR once told me it’s the hardest one to get elected in. I misunderstood JR because Gary Daniels was in office at the time. What he meant was how unstable that was and still is today. Chris Buda, the former NRCC chair, was the one who told me what a “paper candidate” is.
If any readers are unfamiliar, I suggest they talk to Republicans in places like Portsmouth, Lebanon, Keene, and Concord, to name just a few. When was the last time those cities elected a decent senator? Someone usually volunteers to be the paper candidate, but it’s often such a hopeless waste of resources that RPK got reelected without an opponent. She came to power as a Portsmouth alderman, and her degree of untouchability resembles that of Nashua’s mayor, who did not have an opponent in 2019, despite that office being up for election only once in 4 years, rather than the usual 2 elsewhere and in our state offices.
With the embattled Tim McGough making recent headlines, there’s a lot of talk out there by all kinds of people: the enemy camp, Team Red, private citizens, reps, pundits, and internet personalities. One comment came from Chuck McGee of Spectrum Communications about how much was put into flipping that seat. Less than 24 hours later, Michael Graham quoted “one elected Republican” in his NH Journal article, saying that if McGough runs again, they (Senate Republicans) won’t spend a penny on his race. Then Graham finished his article with a quip, presumably from that same unnamed legislator, implying that a 15-9 senate is still acceptable (compared to our current 16-8). Remember that even though we have a 2/3 senate, it’s useless against a veto without a 2/3 House to back it up.
With everything I just said, let’s consider that TWO senate seats were flipped in the 2024 election, but Tim McGough’s is the one currently getting all the attention. The other one was picked up when Victoria Sullivan took out the Queen of Spades, aka Donna Soucy. To put the value of that victory into perspective, it’s still just one vote out of 24 in a roll call, but it’s the inverse of Queen Sharon losing her seat to a Dem. Sharon is safe in her red district, but Victoria earned her seat by good old-fashioned hard work and must fight tooth and nail to keep it.
Do I get to say that Victoria is the ultimate example of proving Chris Ager correct in saying that any seat can be won? Maybe. Many scientists often ask if results can be repeated. If you, the reader, or others agree with Chris, then I suggest taking Tim McGough’s piece of the campaign money pie and redirecting it to another seat. Playing armchair political scientist for a moment, I will recognize that some of those 8 seats are not even worth the mental bandwidth to consider, though Chris will disagree. If serious discussions are to be had about targeting a blue seat in the same manner that Buckley sees Kevin’s as the low-hanging fruit, they must first be identified. I will plant the seed by suggesting the bullseye be placed on Alderman Long, who was installed by swamp rat D’Allesandro’s constituents in 2024.
