There’s a good chance you’ve heard of a book called The Fourth Turning. If you’ve read it, you know there’s a good reason it’s trending again.
Published in 1997 and co-written by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning examined the rhythms of American history and predicted that America’s next enormous crisis – something on par with the Revolution, the Civil War, and the era spanning the Great Depression and World War II – would take place early in the 21st century. Strauss and Howe predicted that this future crisis would mark a dangerous but crucial threshold for our country, resulting in a wholesale remaking of the economic, institutional and civic configuration of American society, just as the prior crises had.
If the tensions building in the country today are any indication, the crisis Strauss and Howe predicted is either approaching or already here. How did we arrive at this point? Well, that depends on who you ask.
On Friday, March 21st, The Boston Globe published an op-ed by the long-time Harvard professor and historian David Kaiser, applying The Fourth Turning’s concept to assess the current situation in America. As one might expect, Donald Trump figures prominently in his assessment. The political rise of Donald Trump has been talked about as an aberration (or worse) ever since he came down the escalator. But is it reasonable to attribute the political movement he energized, and the decisions his administration is now making, to “general disregard for authority and precedent”? Well, perhaps…if “authority and precedent” assumes a vision of America favored by ivory tower intellectuals.
I am not a professional historian, but I have studied the ideas of Strauss and Howe for going on 11 years, and have produced a podcast applying those ideas to current events for going on 6 years. The great mistake Strauss and Howe make in using this cyclical understanding of history to analyze the past, present and future, is that they fail to see where the cycle of recurring crises takes a backseat to human nature and to the problems unique to our own era. And this carries over to people like David Kaiser. The institutions he celebrates for having shaped today’s world have long since become degraded, corrupted, and hostile to the interests and aspirations of ordinary people.
As a Millennial, I have watched the quality of life, social mobility, and public decorum in America decline, in almost uninterrupted fashion, for my entire adulthood. And the state of affairs today, is bleaker than at any point in my 39 years. The paths to meritocratic advancement have been transformed by political correctness. Higher education has indebted millions. The middle class is dying. Families aren’t forming. Despair is endemic among young adults. Political disagreements have become the basis for justifying family breakups, firings, censorings, doxxings, confrontations and violence. And of course…corruption and propaganda are running amok. Is this really a state of affairs worth preserving?
As it turns out, The Fourth Turning was right that America’s next enormous crisis would arrive under the leadership of a Boomer committed to overhauling “the system.” What I hope many are beginning to realize, is that “system” has been moving us toward an inevitable overhaul – and toward the crisis we’re now facing – for a very long time.
In my honest estimation, we’re living through the most perilous crisis in American history, right now. At issue is whether a new system – a “new birth of freedom” – can be born in the face of organized determination to try and stop it at any cost.
As a reminder, authors’ opinions are their own and may not represent those of Grok Media, LLC, GraniteGrok.com, its sponsors, readers, authors, or advertisers. Submit Op-Eds to steve@granitegrok.com
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