Campaign for Vermont released some initial teaser numbers from a poll they conducted as we head into the 2024 legislative session just about a month away. They are not good for the Democrat/Progressive supermajority. They are very good for Governor Phil Scott. Are they good for Republican legislators?
The big number that pops out is that only 35 percent of Vermonters polled believe the state is on the right track. Responding to the question, “Generally speaking, would you say things in Vermont are going in the right direction or wrong direction,” 53 percent said the wrong direction. Thirty-five percent are totally cool with what’s happening, and 12 percent have no opinion.
Asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Vermont State Legislature [controlled by a Democrat Supermajority] is doing representing issues you care about,” only 40 percent approved, while 51 percent disapproved, and 9 percent didn’t know. On the other hand, when asked the same question about Phil Scott, 64 percent approved of the job he’s doing, while only 30 percent disapproved.
A solid interpretation of the data is that a majority of Vermonters don’t like the policies coming out of Montpelier, blame the Democrats/Progressives for passing unpopular laws that yield unsatisfactory outcomes, and appreciate that the governor did his best to stop those policies via his veto pen, although unsuccessfully. Certainly, watching the drama of the Clean Heat Standard (S.5), where thousands of Vermonters called, emailed, and wrote letters begging Democrats to kill the ideologically driven bill that is estimated to add 70¢ to a gallon of home heating oil, only to be backhand slapped by Democrats (every Republican voted against the bill) bolsters that conclusion.
Similarly, the even more unpopular policy of banning internal combustion engine vehicle sales by 2035 – and making it progressively harder and more expensive to buy one in the meantime – appears to be striking a nerve. Car dealers in all fifty states, including nine here in Vermont, recently wrote a letter to President Biden telling him to back off EV mandates as customers don’t want them. Down I-91 this week, Connecticut’s Democrat governor Ned Lamont and that state’s Democrat legislative majority just pulled the plug on joining the California Clean Cars and Trucks initiative. New Hampshire never considered signing on. But the Vermont legislature jumped in with both feet despite a survey showing around 65 percent of Vermonters do not agree with that policy. Solid evidence that they jsut don’t care.
Apart from their radical “green” agenda that is driving up the cost of living in the state – housing costs, energy costs, transportation costs, and the cost of products that are transported and housed (i.e., pretty much everything) – the stuff you were able to afford to buy is more likely to be stolen because of the Left’s “defund the police” policies. Crime in once-safe, rural Vermont is way up, as is the drug use and homelessness at the root of these problems.
Moreover, it can’t help that Vermont Democrat leaders are also siding with the people who just stormed the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree lighting ceremony brandishing swastikas and chanting “from the river to the sea,” an antisemitic rallying cry for genocidal racial cleansing. This, despite another recent poll by Marist for PBS and NPR and reported by the New York Times showing that only 1 percent of Americans support Hamas, and just 30 percent support the Palestinians as opposed to 61 percent who support Israel.
And herein lies a glittering example of the problem. The one demographic exception to the majority of Americans who support Israel over Palestine following the October 7th massacre is people who identify as “very liberal.” Very liberals are anti-Israel by a 2-1 margin (32 to 16 percent). And Vermont’s “very liberal” population is very vocal. We have a disproportionate number of “very liberal” activists, “very liberal” media outlets, and “very liberal” politicians. But these folks, while overrepresented in those aforementioned bubbles, do not represent anything near a majority of Vermonters. (Note to Republicans: Don’t make the mistake of thinking that the 65 percent who are not “very liberal” are “very conservative.” They are not.)
Getting back to the Campaign for Vermont poll, I suspect (without access to the cross-tab data) some subset the 35 percent of Vermonters who think the state is on the right track and the 30 percent who disapprove of Phil Scott is “very liberal.” This should present an opportunity for Republican House and Senate candidates in 2024 – if they do the work to take advantage of the situation. Here are four suggestions to start working on today:
1) Recruit candidates for every seat. I started this yesterday. Too many Vermonters are under the illusion that voters overwhelmingly choose for Democrats, so what’s the point of getting involved? The truth is, most voters never have the opportunity to vote for a Republican because there isn’t one on the ballot. Last cycle roughly half the Democrat and Progressive house candidates ran unopposed. Voters aren’t choosing Democrats and Progressives; they’re stuck with them. You’ve got to be in it to win it, as the old lottery slogan wisely observes.
2) Recruit “Representatives.” The problem with elected Democrats today is that they are “very liberal” ideologues who only listen to other very liberal ideologues and ignore the problems and opinions of the majority of people in their districts in favor of national or global ideological agendas. If Republicans similarly recruit only very conservative ideologues who aren’t interested in focusing in on and working to solve the problems of their constituents, they aren’t going to win. Pick people known in their communities with a reputation for solving local problems. People who are primarily interested in things like funding the police and making sure people can afford to heat their homes in winter.
3) Volunteer and Donate. Politics is not a spectator sport. If you don’t participate, you can’t expect to win. Not everyone is in a position to run for office, but everybody can support someone who does run. Write letters to the editor. Attend sign waves. If you have a lot of friends, host a house party. And donate! It costs at least $10,000 to run a competitive state House race and multiples of that to run for Senate. Democrats understand that Early Money Is Like Yeast (EMILY’s List). Republicans need to learn that lesson. You can’t expect the candidate to shoulder that burden all by his or herself or to win without resources. (One opportunity to contribute now is to the Right for Vermont PAC, which is building a war chest that will be used to recruit and support Republican candidates for 2024.) If you’re not on the field, you can’t win the game.
4) Actively Make the Case. Democrats stink and are out of touch. That’s the problem. But what’s the solution? If the answer to that question is silence from Republicans, how will voters know to vote for you? They won’t, and they won’t. But this is not hard. Just tell Vermonters that, unlike the Democrats passing laws now, Republicans won’t force you into an electric vehicle you don’t want and can’t afford, powered by “renewable” electricity you don’t want because you can’t afford it, especially after you pay the property taxes you can’t afford, on the house in the neighborhood that’s no longer safe. Republicans have solutions to these problems! A majority of people will agree with you. Probably, thank you. Maybe even vote for you. But Republicans need to articulate and spread these messages themselves because the Vermont “very liberal” media is not going to help. So, to steal another advertising slogan, Just Do It.
