Interesting. I was actually scurrying around the NH Secretary of State site looking for something else (dang if I can remember now) when I thought this was what I wanted. It wasn’t but still kinda interesting. Look at the SECOND arrow and compare it to the June 16, 2021 numbers a 17% drop in total voters. That’s a huge drop in what would have been perceived voters here in NH. And that set the stage for my second quick observation – a trend:
- Right after that, the registrations for three Parties (yes, I’m including Undeclared as a Party just because I can) were stagnant for February, May, and August of 2022.
- In May, 2023, a big surge in registration – Democrats up by 6,200 (+/-), Republican up by 14,500 (+/-), and Undeclared by 16,100.
- Kinda strange, though, that the totals for each fell from May to August of 2023.
However, look at the between the Democrat and Republican registrations:
- At the purge, the difference was 10,000 (round numbers)
- Feb 2022, it was 1,000 more to the good for Democrats
- In May, the Republican registration erased that 1,000 gain
- In May, 2023, Republican registration almost erased the gap entirely coming to within 2,000.
- In August of 2023, the gap is less than 1,000 registered voters.
While the Undeclareds swelled to 348,ooo in May 2023 from Feb 2022, that also dropped to 344,000. However, Undeclareds still swamp the R or D numbers.
What are my quick takeaways?
- Registrations are never static (says Dr. Obvious)
- NH Voter registration has not “caught up” from the June 2021 total
- The upcoming election may be closer than before.
THE question, however, is amongst the NH Undeclareds, what is the current split of leaning D or R? That will determine if NH stays purple or more Blue.
Still, the election is months away and I’ll abuse the phrase “an eternity” because, well, it is in politics when perceptions can change literally overnight.
So, for “what it’s worth”…
