I’ve wondered about that already with the Rs picking up 12/13 seats in the US House instead of the Dems picking up a “Blue Wave” of 15-20 they were expecting before the election. IF the remaining seats go the Rs way, it could be 222 to 213 – a difference of only 9 seats. All it would take is what we’ve already seen here in NH in the past – a Republican that couldn’t get support from his own Party (e.g., Doug Scammon) and relied on Democrats to put his butt into that seat.
Over at PJMedia, a similar thought but with an added twist I hadn’t thought of (abstracted):
- The US House voting rules, changed by COVID, allowed for proxy voting (from home). That runs out when the new Congress is sworn in.
- The Speaker is chosen AFTER the swearing in. THEN the new rules can be set.
- This means that candidates for speaker of the House must receive a majority of the votes cast in person to be elected speaker.
- Three moderate Democrats say they don’t intend to vote for Pelosi when the vote takes place on January 3
- Several Democrats have health conditions that have kept them from the Capitol in 2020. It would only take a small number of Democrats being exposed to COVID-19 prior to the vote for Pelosi to potentially be in trouble. “Let’s say, just theoretically, we had six or eight people out with COVID and the Republicans have none. They probably could elect McCarthy,” Yarmuth told The Hill.
Just as a though experiment, let’s say 3+4(sick) are no shows / no votes. That’s 215. Only a 3 vote margin.
Now add in the three Democrat House members have been rumored to serve in Biden’s Administration: Rep. Decric Richmond, Rep Debra Haaland, and Rep. Marcia Fudge.
That’s 212. Oopsies. Sure, they are all in districts that no Republican could crack open right now but those will have to be filled by special elections. Do they have to resign before the new Congress is seated? If so, the jig may be up for Nancy Pelosi.
Now (and I highly doubt this) if she decides to NOT run or a stealth candidate arises, this is just a waste of pixels. But, isn’t handicapping different scenarios is what politics engenders?
