Two studies in two different large California counties show the mortality rate of the coronavirus is similar to that of the seasonal flu.
One study conducted by the University of Southern California (USC) and the L.A. Department of Public Health found that roughly 4.1% of the county’s adult population has already had the coronavirus and many were not even aware. The results of the study estimates:
that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.
This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 [coronavirus illness] reported to the county in early April.
The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.
The other study was conducted by researchers at Stanford University and found similar results:
between 2.5% and 4.2% of Santa Clara County residents had antibodies to the new coronavirus in their blood by early April. Antibodies are an indication that a person’s immune system has responded to a past infection.
Though the county had reported roughly 1,000 cases in early April, the Stanford researchers estimate the actual number was between 48,000 and 81,000, or 50 to 85 times greater.
Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.
While all of the deaths attributed to the coronavirus are tragic, the numbers are small when compared to other causes of death that DON’T shut down economies and countries with stay at home lock down orders. To put things into perspective, the causes of death world wide January 1 through March 25 of 2020:
Coronavirus, 21,000 deaths.
Seasonal flu, 113,000.
Malaria, 228,000.
Suicide, 249,000.
Traffic fatalities, 313,000
HIV/AIDS, 391,000 deaths.
Alcohol related deaths, 581,000.
Smoking-related deaths, 1,162,000.
Cancer deaths, 1,909,000 deaths.
Deaths attributed to starvation, 2,382,000 deaths.
All of those causes of deaths are also tragic, and are responsible for a much higher mortality rate than the coronavirus. But New Hampshire does not shut down annually to prevent mortality from the seasonal flu, nor does the government prohibit automobile usage, nor alcohol and cigarette purchases in order to “save lives”.
Now that real data is being used in legitimate studies by respected organizations – rather than over hyped, scare mongering, off-the-charts inaccurate model projections… it’s time to acknowledge that wrong decisions and over reactions have been made.
The elderly, especially those with pre-existing conditions, are in a high risk group – and precautions for those individuals is prudent… but the rest of us don’t appear to be in any danger that is greater than that from the seasonal flu.
It’s time to return to normal and get back to work.
H/T: Breitbart, LA Times
