With the presidential election season gearing up, and the Democratic nominee almost cemented, this is a great opportunity to review the possible matchup we have in the works. The US feels very different since Trump first took office, and this election is potentially even more important than the last. With Biden as the likely Democratic nominee, we have a familiar face running against Trump who unsurprisingly won the Republican nomination. Biden has been in the political spotlight for a long time, meaning there is a lot we can review regarding his character and abilities. Who will the debates favor? Here is an overview of the upcoming presidential debates leading to our next election.
Biden is Likely the Nominee
With Bernie way behind the former Vice President Joe Biden, it’s likely we will see a debate showdown between Trump and Biden. Though Biden is ahead in the polls, it feels like he has been struggling in the Democratic debates versus other candidates. It seems the odds would favor Trump going into this election season, but it will be a hard road leading up to the election with many pitfalls along the way.
Trump vs Biden, Who Will the Debates Favor?
Debate season is just around the corner and while we have a lot of debate history from Trump we can review, Biden has less game footage we can take from. In past debates versus Hillary, Trump was consistently on target offensively and defensively. He seemed consistently well prepared in his talking points and when challenged, he easily countered or deflected anytime he was backed into a corner. Overall Trump performs like an exceptionally strong debater who knows his voting base well.
On the other hand, Biden does not seem to be particularly well suited to the debate structure. Overall, he seems like one of the weaker debaters when compared to Hillary, Bernie, or most of the other Democratic nominees. In his recent debate versus Bernie, it’s hard to say he won on any level. Bernie easily bullied Biden at several moments, and backed him into a corner with his questioning. Biden consistently seemed unable to fight back without making his position worse. Biden also references Obama and his time as Vice President too much, showing a lack of personal identity. Most importantly, when challenged by Bernie and others, his body language becomes particularly weak, hanging his head or shuffling his fingers. For these reasons, you have to give the advantage to Trump in a debate as he will almost certainly be a stronger opponent than anyone from the Democrat’s side, and will presumably bully Biden fairly easily.
Biden’s Chances of Winning the Election
Biden may still have a chance to win over Trump in the election but it will not be easy for him. There are several factors that could hold Biden back, especially when Trump highlights these drawbacks and attacks them. Voters know who Trump is and what they are getting with him. Throughout his debates with Hillary, Trump was attacked on every issue and personal scandal over the years. This strategy did not work for Hillary and will not work for Biden. He has to find out how to present himself as a solution to the many issues Americans are facing today.
When looked at with an open mind, it is clear that Biden has some drawbacks as a candidate. First, he has a history of outbursts that will certainly not be highlighted in a positive way. He loses his train of thought rather quickly if he is not engaged, and when speaking on a one to one basis in a casual manner, he stumbles on facts and statistics and is constantly corrected by the interviewer. This does not bode well for someone that has to face Trump in heated debates soon.
Much the same as Hillary, Biden will likely not get a large percentage of Bernie’s voting base. Though Bernie’s projected numbers may be padded a bit as the younger voting base is notoriously unreliable when it comes to showing up, it was clear that Hillary did not attract a large percent of Bernie’s voting base and as Biden runs opposite to him on many issues, the same instance is likely to happen to him. Also, Biden has stated that he is committed to picking a female Vice President which is great in itself, but the eventual choice can hinder his shot at the presidency. The most likely VP choices are Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar, and both have pros and cons. While Biden needs a high turnout among African Americans, he also needs to carry Minnesota, which Clinton carried by a whisker in 2016.
The message here is that Biden might be out of touch with Democrat voters of today, and is likely to have a poor turn out as a result. In many ways, he represents the America that Democratic voters want to change. For instance, during the Democratic debates, Kirsten Gillibrand challenged his statements that “women in the workplace are deteriorating the family structure,” to which he did not have a satisfactory reply. There are numerous examples like this showing that Biden might not represent a president that will enact the changes Democrats want to see.
What Trump Needs to do to Secure Victory
Trump is in a position to win reelection if he keeps the ship steady through to November, though he has some challenges that will certainly not be easy to overcome. With the stock market in a panic, he will need to focus on rebounding the economy as this is one of his strongest pillars.
His entire presidency has been built around the strength of the economy and the record low unemployment. If many are out of work come election time this will be an easy target for Democrats to attack him on.
Without a clear resolution on the China trade issue, or his plans regarding border control, Trump has a lot of unfinished business in his presidency. He needs to keep momentum leading up to the election and handle the recent issues well. If there ever was a time he could slip up and lose the voting base he has, it’s now.