Sorry, I couldn’t help myself with the title – but I promise that it’s very applicable.
Essentially, I predict we won’t have Annie Kuster to kick around anymore – at least not in Congress for the next two years.
Looking at the St. Anselm College Survey Center’s April, 2018 poll, our stealthy District-2 Congresswoman is in electoral trouble (“Where The Hell is Annie Kuster?“) – and it can only be worse now, after the Democratic debacle/circus/witch hunt we saw during the Kavanaugh confirmation process.
Here’s what I see:
The St. A’s pollsters waste little time in their executive summary telling us that people think it’s time for someone else to take the seat. I speculate that, after three terms, people are tired of our do-little/do-nothing casual member of Congress. How can they feel otherwise, when she only pops her head out of her Washington bubble every two years, then quietly disappears again after being re-elected?
Looking at the detailed poll data, we see a near 14-point gap in those who think she “deserves re-election” and those ready to move on. And we see a large group of 23% that have no opinion – can you say “malaise”? Contrast this with Governor Sununu’s positive 15-point spread and a much lower don’t care/don’t know factor.
“Although voters would prefer to give a new person a chance by a 45%-32% margin, Kuster’s current potential
fall opponents as of today are not well known to voters.”
And now we know her Republican challenger: Steve Negron (endorsed by GraniteGrok and the Union Leader) is a State Representative from Nashua. Based on the data, I predict Republican and Independent voters are willing to give Negron a shot after Annie’s lackluster (or should I say, nascent) performance. Negron is a very solid conservative without any baggage and if non-Democrat voters actually show up at the polls, he stands a great chance to win. This is his race to lose – and being a Republican elected in the city of Nashua tells us that he has the chops to pull it off.
Looking at other data from the poll, we see a healthy disapproval of her performance, with the “no opinion” factor remaining high in the 20% range. With the exception of Carol Shea-Porter (another blase character), all other politicians in the poll enjoyed close to a 20% spread in the favorable direction, indicating very low excitement for Kuster.
Another clue to Annie’s demise is this 2017 NH Journal article, where she is labeled a “vulnerable incumbent”. It explains that she is both the Chair of the DCCC’s Frontline Program (which provides emergency assistance to vulnerable Democratic Congressional candidates) but is also listed as one of the program’s recipients – talk about a mixed-message. Was she was given the Chair position to elevate her perceived importance?
Nevertheless, Democrats again appear confident, screeching about “taking back the House” to anyone who will listen. But as we learned with Hillary’s failed Presidential bid, predictions don’t always add up in the end – particularly when they are emotionally driven and laced with rabid partisanship. While I don’t feel my prediction is emotional, I will temper it, reminding you that, while the data supports a Kuster loss, a Negron victory cannot be assumed and really does depend on supporters showing up to vote.
It’s not always this cut and dried – but we truly do have the power to direct the outcome here, since Kuster only won by about 15,000 votes in 2016 (with help from 17,000 votes for Libertarian John Babiarz). If we all do the right thing, we can take NH CD-2 away from the Leftists, helping to stave off the bleeding of our liberties and checkbooks.
If you need a little incentive, consider this: Democrats have the following political goals – Reverse tax cuts, change the makeup of the Senate, restrict your Second Amendment, change the makeup of the Supreme Court, abolish the Electoral College and grow all aspects of government (Local, State and Federal). Oh, and impeachment.
If you aren’t sure where and when to vote on November, 6th, please visit this website to find your polling location and sample ballot.
Good things are happening – let’s keep it going.