And not just because they may show results that I don’t like. It is well known that the polling industry hasn’t been doing all that well the last few cycles with results that didn’t match reality. Think Brat over Cantor where the TEA Party guy (Brat) was predicted to get swamped by the #3 guy in the US House.
Cantor got schmucked (I do love Yiddish words!); so much for “polling”. And Trump was supposed to beat everyone last week in Iowa – so much for that. So when I saw this at RedState, my eyes bugged out:
Was leaked an internal poll from a campaign (SORRY CAN'T SAY WHICH ONE) showing New Hampshire:
Trump 32
Gilmore 17
Kasich 12
Rubio 11
Bush 9— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2016
Seriously – Jim Gilmore? The guy that got 12 whole votes state wide in Iowa? 17%? WHO ingested some bad clams to get THAT result? And to me, it just confirms that nobody (except for some of the campaigns’ data mining and analytics of their own contacts and base but they aren’t talking) knows what is going to happen by the end of tomorrow night.
Except me and only sure on one thing – Gilmore isn’t going to get 17% of the vote tomorrow. However, he MIGHT get 17 voters (heck, I bet home state dude Vermin Supreme will get more), but this vanity candidate (nice guy, knows the issues, but at this point he’s only a vanity candidate for his own purposes. Yeah, I’m expecting Trump to come in first or second, but I’m not betting the mortgage money on that even with the “large poll lead”. Given that I and GraniteGrok have endorsed Ted Cruz, am hoping for a first but second also works, I do hope that comes out to be the future reality but I just don’t know.
Too many unknowns, not just within the Republican registered voters but with the whole flock of Independents (not enrolled / registered with either Party) that can pull either ballot in the Primary, who knows if there is an underground version of Rush’s Operation Chaos.
