I would be remiss if I didn’t post up the obligatory current poll results – and given that it is now a couple of weeks after the primary, I’m looking at these as more real than ‘bounce":
NH CD-1:
Fmr. Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) 50%
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 40%
NH CD-2:
Fmr. Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 38%
Attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D) 36%
US Senate:
Fmr. Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) 46%
Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 32%
NH Governor:
Gov. John Lynch (D) 42%
Fmr. NH HHS Secretary John Stephen (R) 40%
At this point, the shift from Blue to Red maybe happening in one fell swoop. Certain, Frank Guinta looks good in his race – knowing that he has been working his butt off, it is clear that he is working as if he were 10 points behind. Certainly, Carol Shea-Porter cannot run from her Progressive record and Pelosi two-step lock-step ways. She has also morphed from a grassroots candidate to one taking LOTS of $$ from the Union special interests.
CD-2 will be interesting in that one has the choice of the Progressive Republican in the middle vs the Progressive Democrat (far Left). Slight advantage for re-runner Charlie, but can he take real advantage of the Democrat enthusiasm gap or will he be done in by the District’s Conservatives and activists just staying home (and trust me, there is a real risk of that happening).
Paul Hodes has always benefited from the anti-Republican mood here in NH the last few cycles – this will be the first time that the political wind has not been at his back – and his first ad has shown him to be running as Republican-lite. I love this – WHY should someone vote the facade?
John Lynch has always had the advantage of not having to have overseen anything worthwhile for political trouble – up to now. A twenty-three percent rise in overall spending (yes, Johnny, off budget items count) and caught in a lie in the biggest social issue ever here in NH has caused the mortar to come loose in his political wall. Can John Stephen and his Mighty Pen bring his wall down? Again, the howling political wind is at Stephen’s back now…
(H/T: Election Advantage here, here, here and here)
BTW, here is Ovide Lamontagne talking with National Review concerning the race and the future:
